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US Market Commentary
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Schwab Market Perspective
Our point of view on recent market and economic activity.
September 18, 2026
Yields Hit 5%, Rates Hiked, as AI Fervor Cools
Stocks tread water as the Fed tightens and the 10-year yield hits 5%, AI and chip shares slump with earnings weeks away, and crypto takes a stalled bill in stride.
September 18, 2026
Looking to the Futures
Treasury futures are trading up Thursday afternoon following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the target interest rate to the 375-400 range.
September 18, 2026
Stocks Fall, Yields Rise on 'Triple Witching' Day
Stocks eased from Thursday's wide rally early as yields rose and the Bank of Japan raised rates. It's triple witching day, so trading activity and volatility might be above normal.
September 18, 2026
Markets Digest Rate Hike Amid Light Earnings Slate
Investors will continue to digest the implications of the Fed's first rate hike in more than three years today, while geopolitical tensions, yields, and oil prices remain in focus.
September 17, 2026
Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
September 16, 2026
Fed Decision Awaited with Hike Odds Seen Above 90%
The Fed rate decision is today at 2 p.m. ET, and futures trading puts hike odds above 90%. It would be the first since 2023. Yields hit 19-year highs Tuesday and oil rose again.
September 16, 2026
Fed Awaited After Yields Top 5%, Oil Spins Higher
Tomorrow is expected to bring the first Federal Reserve rate hike since 2023. Oil spiked and tech stocks stumbled Monday amid AI slowdown fears. The 10-year yield topped 5%.
September 15, 2026
Week Begins with Rate Hike Odds High After CPI
Last Friday's 0.3% monthly core CPI growth for August raised chances of a Fed rate hike Wednesday. Data is thin, so oil and a possible test of 5% for the 10-year note could be key.
September 14, 2026
European Stocks: Reasons to Reconsider
European equities may have support from global growth, improving fundamentals, lower relative valuations, and fiscal spending—plus diversification from the AI cycle.
September 14, 2026
Weekly Trader's Outlook
Stocks remained range-bound, but underlying market volatility, sector rotation, rising oil prices, Treasury yields, and positioning ahead of next week's FOMC meeting kept the outlook cautious as equities tested key support levels.
September 11, 2026
CPI Ahead: Hot Reading Could Lift Rate Hike Odds
Today's Consumer Price Index for August is expected to show monthly CPI up 0.4% and core CPI up 0.2%. More energized readings might increase odds of a rate hike next week.
September 11, 2026
The MOVE Index and Why It Might Matter
The MOVE Index, a.k.a. the "VIX of bonds," helps investors track volatility across U.S. Treasuries. Sometimes, it can signal future action in equities.
September 9, 2026
Take a Hike: Rate Hikes and Market Impacts
History suggests slower Fed tightening tends to support stronger market returns and firmer economic growth, while faster hikes typically deepen drawdowns.
September 9, 2026
Buy, Hold, Sell: What Analyst Stock Ratings Mean
Research analysts assign buy, sell, hold, and other ratings to stocks in their research reports. Here's what these stock ratings mean, and how investors can use them.
September 8, 2026
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
September 4, 2026
What Is a Market Bubble?
Famous market bubbles share some characteristics, but it's nearly impossible to predict how big a bubble might get and when one is about to burst.
September 3, 2026
Songs of Experience: Reminiscences of a Strategist
It's been 40 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
September 3, 2026
How Interest Rate Movements Affect Options Prices
Interest rates have an important effect on options prices, especially when rates are high. The options greek rho measures the impact of rates and can help when evaluating options.
August 27, 2026
Hard-Hitting 'Soft' Data: Why Surveys Matter
'Soft' reports like sentiment and confidence don't reflect 'hard' data like GDP or CPI. Still, they can affect markets and come with various strengths and weaknesses to consider.
August 25, 2026
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