Looking to the Futures

On a day where there wasn't much to celebrate for long traders across the broader market, Bitcoin's price followed suit but held and closed above a key level for the 3rd straight day. Bitcoin November Futures (/BTCX25) saw a roughly 2.82% decrease in price on Thursday closing at $101,210 but did not give up Bitcoin's highly perceived key level of $100k yet again. Tuesday and Wednesday's trading saw /BTC's price dip below $100k intraday, but in both instances were able to recover this level and close above. Across the broader market, major stock indexes fell to 2-week lows after Thursday's report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that US companies announced the most job reductions in any October in 22 years.  Along with this signaling of a cooling labor market, continued concerns around the government shutdown, AI valuation fears, and increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts has helped spur the recent risk-off sentiment. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, as of Thursday there is a 68.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut during the December Fed Meeting which is a fairly stark difference from the 84.8% chance that was priced exactly 1 month ago. 

After celebrating its 17-year anniversary of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto first sharing the Bitcoin White Paper with the world on October 31st, 2008, BTC logged its first monthly decline for the month of October in 7 years, closing -4.01%. Macroeconomic unrest, trade tensions, and a mass liquidation event of over $19 billion in perpetual futures contracts on crypto exchanges in October, have accelerated Bitcoins decline and made its all-time highs set a month ago seem so distant in the past. So far during the month of November, Bitcoin has seen a decline in price of roughly -7.5%. 

Despite the recent headwinds, JP Morgan strategists received attention on Thursday after reporting that Bitcoin now appears to be undervalued relative to its counterpart Gold. Their analysis noted that the ratio of open interest in perpetual futures to Bitcoin's market capitalization which had been severely over leveraged during the past month, has since returned to average levels. Bitcoin ETF outflows of roughly $2 billion since October 29th have also reduced optimism around institutional demand but the JPM strategist contended that these outflows have remained modest compared to earlier inflows over the past months. 

With no clear positive catalysts in view, a White House crypto official provided a statement on Wednesday that offered a slimmer of hope that could potentially change that narrative. Since being passed by the House in the summer, the Clarity Act which aims to provide regulatory clarity regarding digital assets, has been stalled in the Senate ever since. This official however, stated that this major crypto legislation is "full steam ahead" despite the government shutdown and that they are making a lot of progress during this time. With no clear timeline and certainty that it will ultimately get passed through the Senate, bullish traders will have to hope that support levels continue to hold, and optimism returns to the largest digital asset by market cap. According to CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index which measures the prevailing sentiment in the cryptocurrency market on a range of 0 to 100, the Index currently sits at a score of 21 demonstrating increased fear throughout.

/BTC settled Thursday below its 200-day Simple Moving Average for the 3rd straight day and has been trading below the 100 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages since the end of October. The 14-day RSI showed a value of 37.7656 on Thursday, signaling it is approaching oversold levels. Although it has dipped below a couple times, the /BTC front month Futures have not settled below $100k since May 7th of this year. Traders will be intently watching if that trend continues over the next couple of weeks or if selling pressure will finally get the best of this key level. 

3:00 AM ET: New York Fed President John Williams Speech 

7:00 AM ET: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speech 

8:30 AM ET: U.S. Employment Report

8:30 AM ET: U.S. Unemployment Rate

8:30 AM ET: U.S. Hourly Wages

8:30 AM ET: Hourly Wages Year Over Year

10:00 AM ET: UMich Consumer Sentiment (prelim)

3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit

3:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Stephen Miran Speech
 

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• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• Micro Corn (/MZC)
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• Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
• Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

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