Looking to the Futures

Lean hog futures have faced a downward trend as summer has come to an end, with the lead-month December contract recently trading below the 70-cents-per-pound level. The weakness has come as cash hog prices and the CME Lean Hog Index have eased from late-summer highs, while pork values have also softened from earlier levels. USDA data recently showed the national base hog price near the mid-$80s per hundredweight, the CME Lean Hog Index near $87, and the pork carcass cutout value holding in the upper-$80s, underscoring the seasonal pressure that can arrive as supplies build into the fall.

From a fundamental standpoint, the hog market is dealing with a mix of heavier dressed weights, steady slaughter runs, and softer seasonal demand after the summer grilling period. USDA’s Economic Research Service has noted that heavier weights have helped support pork production this year even with smaller hog numbers, with 2026 pork production forecast modestly above last year. That extra tonnage has kept pressure on nearby hog futures, especially as traders look for evidence that domestic pork demand and export interest can absorb fall supplies.

Exports remain an important piece of the price outlook. Recent weekly USDA export sales data showed pork sales of just over 30,000 metric tons, while shipments were reported at a nine-week low. USDA has also pointed to weaker shipments to Mexico as a factor slowing export growth, even though total 2026 pork exports are still expected to exceed 2025 levels. If export demand improves, it could help stabilize the market; if shipments remain sluggish, the lean hog complex may continue to trade defensively.

Traders will also be watching the upcoming USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release on Thursday, September 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The report is expected to provide an updated look at total hog inventory, the breeding herd, market hog supplies by weight category, the summer pig crop, pigs per litter, and farrowing intentions for the next two quarters. Because the market has already been pricing in softer seasonal demand and ample near-term supplies, any surprise in breeding-herd numbers or farrowing intentions could influence expectations for pork production into late 2026 and early 2027.

For now, lean hog futures appear to be searching for a seasonal low as traders balance cheaper futures prices against still-uncertain demand. A firmer pork cutout, improving cash hog prices, or stronger export sales could help the market recover, but continued weakness in wholesale pork values or a larger-than-expected hog inventory report could keep pressure on the front end of the futures curve.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved higher in the early hours with the S&P 500® (+0.01%), the Nasdaq-100® (+0.03%), the Russell 2000® (+0.39%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.19%) all in the green. 

In Asia, major indexes closed higher, with Hang Seng (+0.18%) and the Shanghai (+0.06%) posting gains. The Nikkei was closed for a market holiday. 

European trading saw the FTSE (+0.07%), the CAC (+0.43%), and the DAX (+0.37%) higher by midday. 

Soybean futures (/ZSX26) closed Monday’s session higher (+1.88%), with the lead-month November contract holding near multi-year highs as traders reacted to fresh reports of Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans. Recent reports said state-owned Chinese firms booked additional U.S. cargoes for winter shipment, adding to roughly 1 million metric tons purchased earlier this month, while support also came from the latest NOPA crush data showing August crush at 205.5 million bushels, a record for the month and up just over 8% from a year ago despite coming in below trade expectations. The timing of the buying, ahead of this week’s meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and President Trump, helped fuel optimism that agricultural trade could remain a stabilizing point in broader U.S.-China negotiations, although traders will be watching for follow-through purchases and continued strong crush demand to sustain the rally.

Cotton futures (/CTZ26) closed higher Monday (+2.80%), with prices rebounding from seven-week lows made last week as traders stepped back in after a sharp mid-September pullback. The upcoming meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and President Trump later this week may have helped support the rally, as traders looked for the possibility of progress on trade, tariffs, and agricultural purchases tied to any extension of the U.S.-China trade truce. Export commitments have been running ahead of the five-year average but behind the typical pace needed to meet USDA’s full-year forecast, leaving cotton vulnerable to swings in the U.S. dollar, crude oil prices, and evidence of follow-through demand from key importers such as China.

Crude oil futures (/CLX26) started the week sharply lower (–3.86%), with front-month futures falling to two-week lows as traders reassessed the geopolitical risk premium that had recently lifted prices above the $100-per-barrel area. The sell-off came as reports pointed to still-resilient Middle East oil flows and hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy around this week’s United Nations meetings, easing some immediate concerns about supply disruptions despite continued regional tensions. A stronger supply backdrop, softer refined-product demand signals, and profit-taking after the recent rally all appeared to weigh on crude, leaving the market focused on whether upcoming inventory data and any diplomatic developments can stabilize prices.

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

ADP Weekly Employment Change (interest rates and stock indices)

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (interest rates)

Futures last trading day: October Crude Oil

6-week T-bills and 2-year Notes

Scheduled Federal Reserve speakers include New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.