Schwab Market Update
Triple Witching Friday Could Result in Volatility
Published as of: March 20, 2025, 9:15 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® index |
5,662.89 |
-12.40 |
-0.22% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® |
41,953.32 |
-11.31 |
-0.03% |
| Nasdaq Composite® |
17,691.63 |
-59.16 |
-0.33% |
| 10-year Treasury yield |
4.21% |
-.25 |
-- |
| U.S. Dollar Index |
103.88 |
+0.03 |
+0.03% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® |
20.40 |
+0.60 |
+3.03% |
| WTI Crude Oil |
$68.05 |
-$0.02 |
-0.02% |
| Bitcoin |
$83,930 |
-265 |
-0.31% |
(Friday market open) Equity index futures were pointing to a lower opening, with S&P 500 futures 0.21% lower on Friday's premarket session. On the bright side, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has retraced from its recent high around 25 to just below 20, suggesting investor anxiety has waned. However, the VIX is still elevated for the year, suggesting some hesitancy.
On a triple witching expiration Friday, investors should be prepared the possibility of increased volatility, especially around today’s close. With the closing of $4.5 trillion of equity, index, and ETF options, traders have a lot of positions to unwind or roll.
U.S. cotton has been a casualty of the trade war as Chinese purchases fell almost 80% from a year ago according to Bloomberg. Large engine cars were down 70% and crude oil and natural gas purchases are down 40%. However, soybean imports have risen 50% and purchases of processors and chips has nearly doubled.
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Three things to watch
- Harboring: The bond market saw some flow of funds as investors looked for safe havens on Thursday. Yesterday's bond rally was likely due to the follow-on effects from Wednesday's Fed meeting and caution from the Bank of England, according to Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Howard expressed concern that the Fed lacked "confidence in their outlook and the situation could change rapidly." If uncertainty continues to rise, then bonds could see more buying.
- Base line: Light sweet crude oil futures (/CL) are dancing on a price level that's been around for about four years. Since October of 2021, the $66.50 level has acted as support for crude oil. If this level was to break, investors could see it as a bad sign for the economy because demand for oil is low. Oil is a useful economic indicator because it's used in the transportation, manufacturing, and base of many products.
- Wall Street woes: Layoffs are coming to Wall Street: Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Bank of America (BAC) all announced layoffs in the last few weeks, according to Yahoo! Finance. Many of these financial institutions have experienced recent pullbacks in line with the market, but none of them appear to be in financial straits. So far, it appears the move is an attempt to follow Citigroup (C) and get leaner. Citi announced a two-year reduction plan a year ago.
On the move
- In an all hands meeting broadcast, Elon Musk encouraged Tesla (TSLA) employees to be patient as the company goes through some tough times. Tesla stock has dropped 50% in three months.
- Micron (MU) was down 3.51% ahead of the opening bell despite posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue after yesterday’s close.
- FedEx (FDX) tumbled 3.9% after yesterday’s closing bell when it reported lower-than-expected earnings despite topping revenue estimates. Losses were compounded overnight to 7.92% ahead of the opening bell.
- Nike (NKE) beat earnings and revenue estimates resulting in the stock rallying 4.23% in extended hours trading. However, overnight, investors flipped on the stock, taking it down 4% from its Thursday close.
More insights from Schwab
Managing governance: Corporate governance can impact a company's performance. Learn why corporate governance matters to retail investors and the three groups that direct it: shareholders, the board of directors, and management by watching Schwab's "Corporate Governance: Who Controls Public Companies" video.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--111271" >Managing governance: Corporate governance can impact a company's performance. Learn why corporate governance matters to retail investors and the three groups that direct it: shareholders, the board of directors, and management by watching Schwab's "Corporate Governance: Who Controls Public Companies" video.
Chart of the day
Data sources: S&P Global. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Comparing the S&P 500 Value Index ($SP500V) to the S&P 500 Growth Index ($SP500G) using the relative strength indicator shows that investor appear to be favoring value during the recent decline in the markets. However, the growth index has overall been stronger than the value index going back to January of 2023, which may suggest that growth could still have the secular advantage because the uptrend remains intact.
The week ahead
Check out the Investors' Calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
March 24: Expected earnings from KB Home (KBH).
March 25: March Consumer Confidence, February new home sales, and expected earnings from McCormick (MKC).
March 26: February durable goods and expected earnings from Chewy (CHW), Petco (WOOF), and Dollar Tree (DLTR).
March 27: Final Q4 gross domestic product, wholesale inventories, pending home sales, and expected earnings from Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), AAR (AIR), and Winnebago (WGO).
March 28: PCE price index and Michigan consumer sentiment.