Nvidia Leads Early Tech Gains Ahead of Fed Minutes

Published as of: February 18, 2026, 9:08 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) Investors face a triple play starting with Federal Reserve minutes later today followed by Walmart (WMT) earnings tomorrow and inflation data Friday. Wall Street enters this stretch with light gains the last two sessions and signs of life again this morning as battered tech stocks drummed up some buying interest. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 2% early on news of an expanded AI chip deal with Meta Platforms (META).

Treasury yields edged up ahead of Fed minutes due at 2 p.m. ET but remain near two-month lows just above 4% for the 10-year note. This might be one aspect of the tailwind for stocks the last two days, and reflects widening futures market expectations for a possible third Fed rate cut this year. Minutes might provide more insight on that front. At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains in cautious territory slightly above 20 but fell this morning.

Tuesday marked the third-straight session where rally attempts flagged late in the day, which suggests a market that's tiring and perhaps can't generate enthusiastic buying interest on upward moves. The midday gains accompanied a slide in volatility, lower Treasury yields, and signs of dip-buying in tech, but none appeared exciting enough to provide any additional boost. Some sort of catalyst might be needed to give tech a lift, and Nvidia's earnings next week loom. Until tech picks up the baton, it could be tough for major indexes to gain traction.

1. After rally, Walmart approaches earnings: The main earnings event this week comes tomorrow morning when Walmart (WMT) reports. Shares spiked early this year, partly helped by general strength in the consumer staples arena as investors rotate out of tech and into what they consider "value" parts of the market. Walmart itself got another positive jolt earlier this month when company veteran John Furner took command as CEO. Last time the company reported, it beat analysts' expectations and raised its full-year forecast. One question for Walmart and other retailers that report next week is if there's been any negative impact on consumer demand from the expiration of Covid-era health care subsidies. Congress allowed those to end and now many consumers face rising costs. U.S. retail sales also were flat in December, a possible headwind for retailers. Another question is whether last year's historically sluggish U.S. jobs growth—perhaps partly related to productivity gains linked to AI—led to consumers pulling back, and whether Walmart thinks that could be a factor going forward. Discount retailers like Walmart sometimes thrive in poor economic environments as shoppers flock there for bargains. Retailer earnings accelerate next week when Home Depot (HD), Alibaba (BABA), and Lowe's (LOW) report, but they might be over-shadowed to some extent by Nvidia, which reports a week from today.
    
2. Fed seen cautious on rate moves ahead of minutes: When all the data is parsed, barring major surprises, the Fed's current antipathy toward near-term rate cuts could persist a while longer. "There's not a motivating factor right now to move unless your forecast is for a much weaker economy," said Schwab Center for Financial Research's (SCFR) Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, in her latest podcast with Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR. "Some people are making the case that much greater productivity will allow the economy to grow faster without inflation. But keep in mind, higher real growth requires higher real interest rates." That's why improved productivity—often discussed in Washington—doesn't necessarily just open the door to much lower interest rates. "I think they sit on their hands for a while longer and maybe all the way until May when we get a transition from Jay Powell to presumably Kevin Warsh," Jones added. Today's Fed minutes could shed new light, but most of the recent Fed speakers haven't clamored for accelerated rate cuts. However, Fed policymakers are expected to closely watch the February jobs report early next month for any downward revisions to January's surprisingly solid headline jobs growth.
    
3. Housing kicks off data parade: Though much of the weekly data arrives Friday, this morning brought housing data for the final two months of 2025. December housing starts and building permits easily topped the Briefing.com consensus, up 6.2% and 4.3% month over month, respectively. Another positive item today was a 0.9% monthly rise in December durable orders, excluding transportation. Friday brings the government's first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and the Fed's favored inflation meter, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices. Analysts expect December PCE to show more of an uphill fight in the inflation battle. The Briefing.com consensus is 0.3% month over month. Core PCE consensus—excluding food and energy—is 0.4%. Both would accelerate from 0.2% in November. Year-over-year numbers also stand in the spotlight with consensus at 2.8%, well above the 2% Fed goal. With PCE ahead, the market might not be poised for big moves today and tomorrow, barring something unexpected.

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slumped 6% after its earnings beat analysts' estimates late Tuesday. Revenue came in as expected, but investors appeared disappointed with below-consensus guidance, which reinforced worries about the software space.
   
• Nvidia's rise this morning came after Meta announced what it called a "multi-year strategic partnership with Nvidia to advance our long-term AI infrastructure roadmap." The deal could be worth tens of billions of dollars, Barron's reported. The large-scale deployment of Nvidia technology builds on the companies' existing relationship and will support Meta's build-out of data centers optimized for AI training and inference. Meta shares, which are steady year-to-date, didn't move on the news.
   
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropped 2.3%, possibly hurt by the Nvidia news. AMD is an Nvidia rival.
   
• Arm Holdings (ARM) climbed 1% despite Nvidia exiting its stake in the company. Arm's commercial partners include Meta, Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN), CNBC noted.
   
• Palantir (PLTR) jumped more than 2.7% in early action after being upgraded by Mizuho to Outperform from Neutral. The firm said the company is delivering total revenue growth, acceleration, and margin expansion "at scale that is unlike anything else in software."
   
• Amazon (AMZN) rose 1% as regulatory filings showed Bill Ackman's Pershing Square grew its stake in Amazon by 65% in the fourth quarter, CNBC reported. Amazon shares had fallen nine straight sessions before a rise yesterday, the longest losing streak since 2006.
   
• Garmin (GRMN) surged 15% ahead of the open following earnings that topped consensus and strong guidance.
   
• Caesar's Entertainment (CZR) rang up 5.4% gains early today after quarterly revenue growth topped consensus.
   
• Analog Devices (ADI) gained almost 7% in early action after earnings and revenue exceeded Wall Street's expectations for the semiconductor firm.
   
• Applied Digital (APLD) fell 7.6% early today after a regulatory filing showed that Nvidia had exited its $177 million stake in the stock.
   
• Sandisk (SNDK) fell more than 4% after announcing the launch of a secondary public offering of shares currently owned by Western Digital (WDC).
   
• Software stocks generally edged higher this morning following another weak performance yesterday that limited tech gains.
   
• Mining stocks moved up early today as gold and silver gained.
   
• Crude oil (/CL) climbed more than 2% to nearly $64 per barrel today amid heightened tensions around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. relations with Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported today that Iran is ignoring core U.S. demands in nuclear talks, citing Vice President JD Vance.
   
• EV firm Rivian Automotive (RIVN) skidded 7% Tuesday after a downgrade from DA Davidson.
   
• Apple (AAPL) rose 3% yesterday as investors appeared excited about new product announcements scheduled for early next month. This morning came news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) trimmed its stake in Apple and took a stake in shares of New York Times (NYT), which climbed 2%.
   
• Only four S&P 500 sectors gained Tuesday. Three sectors fell more than 1%, with staples and materials among them. This appeared to represent a slight shift from last week's pattern where value and defensive stocks led the way. Materials weakness Tuesday also reflected weak precious metals prices, which might struggle to find buyers this week with China's markets closed for holidays.
   
• The tech sector is unchanged since mid-September as the share of members trading above their 200-day moving average continues to deteriorate.
   
• Bitcoin (BTC) inched lower early today. After the long decline of more than 50% from last October's highs, some sort of leveling may be on the way. "Bitcoin may have bottomed after finding support near its 200-week moving average," said Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at SCFR.

The Cboe Volatility index (VIX—candlesticks) remains above 20, the historic average, and has a recent pattern of higher highs and higher lows (red lines). From a technical perspective, this implies that market participants expect VIX to continue rising, a sign of more cautious trading on Wall Street and typically bearish for stocks. Meanwhile, the VIX remains well above its 100-day moving average (blue line).

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

February 19: January pending home sales and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), Southern (SO), and Newmont (NEM).
February 20: December personal income and personal spending, December PCE prices, Q4 GDP advance estimate, and final February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
February 23: February Consumer Confidence.
February 24: January durable orders and January new home sales and expected earnings from Home Depot (HD), Alibaba (BABA), American Tower (AMT), and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP).
February 25: January durable orders, January new home sales, and expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), and Snowflake (SNOW).