Tech Up, Led by Nvidia, as Shutdown Vote Awaited

Published as of: November 12, 2025, 9:17 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) Tech shares swung higher today on a 1% pop from Nvidia (NVDA) early on, helped by encouraging earnings from its Asian supplier Foxconn. It was a sharp shift from 24 hours ago when Nvidia's weakness led tech lower, and the rest of the market also seemed primed for gains as risk-on sentiment returned after last week's discouraging dip.

The spotlight swings to Congress as the House prepares to vote this afternoon on an end to the shutdown. Republicans only have a slim majority. "House Speaker Mike Johnson can only lose two Republican votes on the bill to reopen the government," noted Michael Townsend, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "But it is expected that at least some moderate Democrats will support the measure, likely giving Johnson more wiggle room." Once the measure passes, President Trump is expected to quickly sign it, making it likely the government will be open by the end of the week, Townsend added.

Major indexes mostly climbed Tuesday despite Nvidia's stumble. Anyone tired of the roller coaster ride in chips might want to monitor the broader market, which strengthened yesterday as breadth widened on strong outings from health care and energy that helped send the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new high. "The bulls have several potential drivers for fourth quarter upside, including bullish seasonality, performance chasing, and potentially another Fed cut in December," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Also, with the S&P 500 index holding support at the 50-day simple moving average, traders have a line in the sand to trade against, so to speak."

1. Jobs data, once available, could show weakness: There's a smattering of reports today but not any that are especially market moving. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index out this morning barely rose from a week earlier, up 0.6%. What investors really want a crack at are the September and October employment reports from the U.S. government. September's numbers were collected prior to the shutdown and could be released once the Bureau of Labor Statistics gets the lights back on. October's data is an open question, because the government was shut during the normal collection time. "With the shutdown coming to an end, we'll get economic data, and perhaps the biggest test will be the labor market data—how weak is it out there?" Peterson said. Investors got what might be a sneak preview yesterday when ADP's preliminary data showed private employers shedding an average of 11,250 jobs a week during the four weeks ended October 25. However, correlation between ADP and the official data isn't common.
    
2. Auction time for Treasuries: The bond market reopens today after Tuesday's Veteran's Day closure, and the 10-year yield sank three basis points in the early going. Yields climbed on Monday as risk-on appetite returned, pushing down the price of Treasuries (which move the opposite direction of yields). Treasuries will likely be watched closely today after results this afternoon from a $42 billion 10-year note auction. Demand could help determine the direction of yields, with any weakness potentially sending them higher. A $58 billion auction of 3-year notes on Monday saw solid buying interest, Briefing.com said, an encouraging sign. A couple of the main headwinds for Treasury demand, including the government shutdown and trade static with China, aren't necessarily barriers to demand now as they were a couple weeks back. Along with the auction, the Federal Reserve stays in focus today with remarks from four regional Fed presidents as well as Fed governors Christoper Waller and Stephan Miran. As of this morning, futures trading prices in 63.4% chances of a Fed rate cut next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    
3. Schwab investors were net buyers again last month: For the fifth month in a row, the Schwab Trading Activity Index^™ (STAX), rose in October and reached its highest level since early this year. The index, which rose to 48.12 from September's 46.12, finished strong as Magnificent Seven earnings, a Federal Reserve rate cut, and excitement over progress on U.S.-China trade relations appeared to bring buyers back in the final week of the month. Investors tracked by the index continued showing signs of cautious optimism in their trading behavior, taking advantage of dip-buying opportunities and increasing exposure even during the government shutdown and amid concerns of the market possibly becoming top-heavy. Popular names bought by Schwab clients included Nvidia, Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Palantir (PLTR). The stocks seeing the heaviest net selling by Schwab clients were Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Apple (AAPL).

• Nvidia popped 1.4% early today after yesterday's 2% drop as turbulence continued in shares of the AI leader. Today's strength reflected earnings from Foxconn, which builds cloud and networking products along with AI servers. Profit topped expectations and the company cited solid demand for AI software, Barron's reported. Yesterday's losses came after weak guidance from CoreWeave (CRWV)—a firm Nvidia holds shares of—and news that SoftBank had sold its stake in Nvidia. CoreWeave was up 3% early today.
   
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a competitor of Nvidia's, spiked nearly 6% in the early going after outlining its long-term financial model at a meeting it held for financial analysts. The company expects to drive a better than 35% revenue compound annual growth rate the next three-to-five years and also said AI data center revenue should grow by more than 80% per year over that same time period. Several analysts raised their price targets on AMD shares.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) rose less than 1% despite sales falling across four markets, including North America, last month, according to industry data tracked by Wells Fargo, Barron's reported.
   
• Cisco (CSCO) rose less than 1% as investors await earnings after today's close. Cisco's presence snakes underneath the global tech world, meaning its results can be a decent barometer of enterprise demand. Last time out, Cisco cited solid AI infrastructure orders from web companies, a category that will be closely watched today.
   
• Walt Disney was flat ahead of its earnings report early Thursday. Its results could provide a useful update on how much cash consumers are spending on movies, streaming, theme parks, and cruises at a time when consumer sentiment has descended to its weakest level in years.
   
• Oklo (OKLO) jumped 4.3% in pre-market trading despite quarterly losses exceeding analysts' expectations and no revenue. Shares of the nuclear start-up have powered higher this year on bullish sentiment around its connection with the role of nuclear energy in AI. While Oklo still expects its first reactor to begin operations in 2027 or 2028, its new focus on utilizing Department of Energy authorization could push the plan out further, a Citigroup analyst warned.
   
• Airline shares, including Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), and American Airlines (AAL) were all up about 1% early. Airlines are tracking today for the lowest number of cancellations since the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered reductions last week due to Washington's shutdown, Bloomberg reported. Air traffic controllers still haven't been paid, however.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) rose 2.3% ahead of the open and shares of crypto-related stocks including CoinBase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) were up about 1.5% each. The return of risk-on sentiment evident in the stock market today appeared to also lift crypto. The exception was Circle Internet Group (CRCL), with shares down more than 3% ahead of the open after the company reported solid earnings but also forecast higher expenses.
   
• Checking charts, on any dip in the S&P 500 index, support likely rests near the 50-day moving average of 6,686. The 50-day line has held on several tests over the last month.

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The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX—candlesticks), sometimes called the "fear index," has been relatively contained the last three months, mainly below 20 with a couple of very clear exceptions. The S&P 500 index (SPX—purple line) has generally traded inversely with VIX during this time period, recently rising again as VIX fell. This suggests investors might want to watch where the VIX goes for possible clues on SPX action.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 13: October CPI and core CPI, and expected earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), NetEase (NTES), JD.com (JD), and Applied Materials (AMAT).
November 14: October PPI and core PPI, October retail sales.
November 17: No major earnings or data expected.
November 18: Expected earnings from Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), and Baidu (BIDU).
November 19: October housing starts and building permits and expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and TJX Companies (TJX).