Mag 7 Ride Again as Four Report After Fed Decision

Published as of: April 29, 2026, 9:14 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) With the busiest day of the quarter on tap, tech stocks clawed back from Tuesday's losses but the broader market wavered in early action awaiting earnings from four of the Magnificent Seven and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Trading could be muted ahead of all the news, starting with the 2 p.m. ET Fed announcement.

No rate change is expected, so intrigue at the central bank will likely turn to whether Chairman Jerome Powell will stay on the Fed board. With Powell's term as chairman expiring next month, his economic outlook—possibly hawkish—may carry less weight than usual. There's also plenty of intrigue about what mega-cap companies will say in their outlooks after the close, especially in the wake of yesterday's chip market swoon.

The dive in chips yesterday keyed off a Wall Street Journal report about OpenAI missing internal demand targets that appeared to be "a perfectly timed piece to spoil the party in chips," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Tuesday's malaise in tech pulled down the entire market, though major indexes remain near all-time highs despite crude oil climbing above $103 per barrel today as the Middle East conflict dragged. Media reports said President Trump isn't happy with Iran's latest peace offer and is considering an extended blockade.

1. Magnificent Seven AI spending in focus: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) all come out with earnings after the close today, meaning market participants might want to consider tracking where their stocks head in overnight trading for clues into Thursday's action on Wall Street. The earnings arrive at an auspicious time following The Wall Street Journal's report Tuesday that ChatGPT developer OpenAI missed its internal projections for revenue and usage. This raised questions about overall AI demand and whether alleged problems at OpenAI are isolated to it or industry wide. OpenAI, for its part, called the article "ridiculous," and firm earnings and guidance from data storage company Seagate (STX) late yesterday might reassure investors. While AI spending plans may be the driving factor and grab headlines when mega-caps report, each company increasingly swims in its own AI pool, meaning different fundamentals apply. "Investors still appear to be relatively forgiving toward rampant AI infrastructure spending, but the days of treating Mag 7 as a bullish monolithic trade appear to be over," my colleague Peterson said in Schwab's tech earnings preview.
    
2. Chip stocks face "day after" questions: Yesterday's chip market sell-off followed a parabolic rally of nearly 50% from their March lows. Whether the parabola dips further depends in part on what the big four mega caps say later today about their data center spending plans. This could help investors understand if OpenAI's alleged struggles—which it denied—are temporary and isolated or part of a larger theme. Many analysts who study the chip sector have said recently they still believe AI is in the "early innings," meaning it has a long way to go. Magnificent Seven executives will likely face close questioning from analysts on their earnings calls as Wall Street tries to glean more about OpenAI's perceived struggles and if there's any need to worry about data center spending or demand. Guidance likely means more than actual results, barring major surprises.
    
3. Rate pause seen ahead, but GDP and PCE data could set direction: Chances of a Fed rate move today are zero, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Odds of any cut at all this year are also on the low side, near 15% this morning, though it could be interesting to see if there's an impact on that Thursday morning when the government releases March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices and its first estimate for first quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Energy inflation is expected to lift March headline PCE by about 0.6%, according to Briefing.com, while core PCE excluding food and energy rises 0.3%, down from 0.4% in February. Any deviation toward higher prices would likely keep the Fed more cautious about future rate cuts. Analysts expect 2.1% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter, but a miss might get them worried again about economic pressures on employment. The average analyst GDP estimate is more optimistic than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 1.2%.

• Seagate led a charge in chips and AI-related stocks today, climbing 18% in early trading on its earnings results and lifting other memory chip stocks like Western Digital (WDC) and Micron (MU). Seagate raised its annual revenue growth target amid strong AI-related demand. AI leader Nvidia (NVDA) ticked up by less than 1%, but Oracle (ORCL), which retreated Tuesday, remained under pressure this morning.
   
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) soared 15% in early action on solid quarterly results from the Dutch chipmaker that surpassed analysts' estimates. While NXP specializes in making chips for cars and less on AI chips, its results point to strong industrial chip demand after Texas Instruments (TXN) said last week that its quarterly industrial sales surged.
   
• Starbucks (SBUX) climbed nearly 5% in early trading as the coffee firm beat analysts' consensus for earnings and revenue and said it sees fiscal 2026 earnings above levels expected by Wall Street. Global same-store sales at stores open at least a year increased 6.2%, leading some analysts to say the company's turnaround efforts apparently are paying off.
   
• Visa (V) surged more than 6% this morning after the company surpassed analysts' earnings and revenue estimates, with 17% revenue growth representing the biggest increase since 2022. Consumer spending "remained resilient," Visa said in its statement. This followed similar observations from competitor American Express (AXP) when it reported recently.
   
• T-Mobile (TMUS) climbed 2% after surpassing analysts' earnings expectations and raising guidance.
   
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) slipped 5% after the travel platform reduced guidance, citing the Middle East conflict. However, the company topped quarterly consensus for earnings and revenue.
   
• Earnings yesterday generally continued the trend of major S&P 500 companies beating analysts' expectations, with many executives reporting resilient consumer demand. That included General Motors (GM) and Coca-Cola (KO), which rose yesterday, and United Parcel Service (UPS), which dipped.
   
• In data this morning, housing starts rose to 1.502 million in March, up from 1.356 million in February on a seasonally adjusted annual basis and a 15-month high. However, building permits, a signal of future demand, fell to 1.372 million from 1.538 million. Durable goods orders rose 0.8% month over month in March, well above the 0.5% Briefing.com consensus, with strength seen in computers and electronic products.

Short interest check-in: Find out which stocks are attracting the most interest from short sellers in our latest Short Interest Monitor. Tracking stocks with high and rising short interest can help traders gauge market sentiment, monitor positioning trends, and spot potential red flags in key market sectors.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX—candlesticks) fell to below 18 Tuesday from recent highs near 20 despite chip market weakness. Generally, VIX has traded in the opposite direction of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line) over the last few months, a relationship that's traditionally been the case over the years. "I think the potential for elevated volatility over the next couple weeks is higher," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at SCFR.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

April 30: ECB rate decision, Q1 GDP first estimate, March PCE and core PCE prices, and expected earnings from Apple (AAPL), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), ConocoPhillips (COP), Amgen (AMGN), Altria (MO), SanDisk (SNDK), and Western Digital (WDC).
May 1: April ISM Manufacturing PMI, and expected earnings from Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL). Earnings from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) are expected on Saturday, May 2.
May 4: Expected earnings from Palantir (PLTR), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), and Tyson Foods (TSN).
May 5: ISM April Services PMI® and expected earnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), Lumentum (LITE), Strategy (MSTR), Eaton (ETN), Shopify (SHOP), Pfizer (PFE), Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD), and Duke Energy (DUK).
May 6: ADP April employment and expected earnings from Walt Disney (DIS), Uber Technologies (UBER), Novo Nordisk (NVO), CVS Health (CVS), Marriott International (MAR), Apollo Global Management (APO), Medline (MDLN), Arm Holdings (ARM), AppLovin (APP), DoorDash (DASH), and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).