Nvidia Ignites Rally, but Jobs Data Looks Mixed

Published as of: November 20, 2025, 9:21 a.m. ET

(Thursday market open) Solid results from Nvidia (NVDA) eased AI concerns and fueled an overnight tech rally. After the new day dawned, however, investors faced fresh economic news as September's nonfarm payrolls report showed a surprising climb of 119,000 jobs versus the expected 50,000. Beneath the headline, numbers were sweet and sour, with downward revisions to prior reports and a mild rise in the unemployment rate.Short-term Treasury yields declined but stocks kept their sharp gains.

Unemployment in September climbed to 4.4% from August's 4.3%, while September services employment growth outpaced growth in more lucrative professions and the government subtracted 33,000 jobs from prior reports. Jobs growth in August turned negative with the revisions. "Despite the move lower in Treasury yields, this report doesn't change our outlook for a December pause by the Fed," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "It suggests the labor market is cooling, but probably not enough to move the needle for the committee members that are worried about inflation."

Stocks rebounded Wednesday as tech led the way out of a four-day losing streak. The rally came despite odds of a rate cut dropping sharply to around 35% from above 90% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, after Fed minutes from its last meeting noted policy makers sounding hesitant due to stubborn inflation and limited data caused by the government shutdown. The government won't release an October jobs report, and November data won't be available until December 16, after the Fed's meeting. Meanwhile, Walmart's (WMT) earnings this morning impressed but also reinforced ideas that shoppers are pointing their cars toward less costly stores.

Deeper dive on jobs report: September's jobs growth was heaviest in health care, which added 43,000 jobs, and in professions like food services, drinking places, education, and social assistance. Signs of a broader economic slowdown showed up in the 25,000 decline for jobs in transportation and warehousing, along with little change in industries like mining, oil and gas extraction, construction, and manufacturing. Professional and business services was among the weakest sectors with 20,000 jobs lost. Also, the services-weighted jobs growth could be why average hourly wages rose just 0.2%, though they're up 3.8% year over year. The government also downwardly revised July jobs growth to 72,000 from 79,000 and reduced its estimate for August jobs growth to a negative 4,000. "The rise in the unemployment rate appears to be driven by an expansion of the labor force, however, so it's not necessarily as bad as the headline number suggests," my colleague Martin said.

An in-depth look at Nvidia's earnings: The largest U.S. company by market capitalization reported earnings per share of $1.30, slightly ahead of the average $1.25 forecast, on revenue of $57.01 billion, versus the consensus of $54.9 billion. Revenue rose 62% year over year. In the important guidance arena, Nvidia easily exceeded analysts' expectations with a forecast for fiscal fourth quarter revenues between $63.7 billion and $66.3 billion. FactSet consensus was $62.17 billion. The only guidance that was a bit light came in the relatively insignificant automotive segment. "It's really tough to impress Wall Street when the world has a spotlight on you and everyone expects you to beat and raise, but once again Nvidia has delivered," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Those looking for signs of demand deceleration for Nvidia's chips will have to continue to wait." Earlier this year, falling margins were a negative focus point, but gross margin in the fiscal third quarter rose to 73.6% from 72.7% in the second quarter. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, called sales of the company's Blackwell chips as "off the charts."

Going bananas as Walmart reports: November is shaping up as the first month in the red for stocks since April when tariff fears gripped the market. Ironically, perhaps, stocks are falling this month even as the Trump administration relaxed tariffs on some popular items like coffee and bananas to give consumers relief. Even so, the big retailers reporting this week, including Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT), disappointed with their results and Target cited caution among its customers. When Walmart reported back in August, it said tariffs remain a headwind, forcing it to raise prices on some items. Many companies did that to protect margins as tariffs pushed up their costs on imported goods. It's too soon to say if the administration's slight shift will have an impact, but Walmart—which says it sells 1.7 billion pounds of bananas each year, equivalent to the weight of 86,000 elephants, according to the company—might have perspective in today's earnings call.

• Nvidia soared 5% ahead of the open but remains about 8% below last month's all-time high. One area of strength analysts noted was in the data center segment, where Nvidia's guidance indicated that heavy spending is likely to continue--a positive development for other companies in the sector as well. Nvidia reiterated in its call that it has $500 billion in orders for its Blackwell and Rubin chips. 
   
• AI-related shares Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Palantir (PLTR) all climbed 3% to 6% ahead of the open, rebounding as AI valuation concerns eased following Nvidia's robust guidance.
   
• CoreWeave (CRWV) climbed almost 10% in pre-market action. The data center company said this week it nearly doubled its revenue backlog in the last quarter, and shares may also be benefitting today from Nvidia's partnership. CoreWeave helped set off the recent AI market pullback when it disappointed with its earnings, dragged by a supply chain issue.
   
• Walmart jumped 1.8% after earnings and revenue topped analysts' consensus and the company ramped up its full-year forecast. In an interview with CNBC, a Walmart executive said the company is benefitting from consumers' search for value, and that this crosses various income levels.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) climbed 2.6% early Thursday after hitting a multi-month low early Tuesday below $90,000. Shares of crypto-related firms, including Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) climbed 1% to 3% in the pre-market hours as Nvidia's results appeared to revive some of the market's risk appetite.
   
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fell 3% after the cybersecurity firm reported a small earnings per share beat and in-line revenue. Everything else in the report, including guidance, appeared to be in line with analysts' estimates. Fiscal first quarter revenue grew 16% year over year. Shares are down around 10% from recent highs.
   
• Shares of tech company Block (XYZ) rose almost 7% Wednesday and another 2.7% early today after releasing a long-term financial outlook that forecast mid-teens profit growth through 2028 and 30% adjusted annual operating income growth. The company also increased its share buyback program.
   
• Risk appetite appeared back in the market this morning as stocks like quantum computing firm Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and nuclear power firm Oklo (OKLO) rose 2.75% and 5%, respectively. Both had fallen dramatically from their October highs.
   
• Power company shares seen benefiting from data center demand, including Constellation Energy (CEG) and NRG Energy (NRG), were among stocks on the rise before the open.
   
• Staples and health care stocks were among the laggards this morning after leading the market much of the last two weeks during the tech sell-off.

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Nvidia's earnings yesterday present a good time to revisit semiconductor performance so far this year. Even with the recent 9% drop from record highs, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX—candlesticks) is still up nearly 33% year to date, outpacing the Nasdaq-100^® (NDX—blue line) and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW—purple line). The SPXEW weighs all stocks in the index equally, removing the impact of market capitalization of companies like Nvidia that factor heavily into the S&P 500 index.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 21: Final November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and expected earnings from BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ).
November 24: Expected earnings from Zoom Communications (ZM).
November 25: November consumer confidence and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Nio (NIO), Analog Devices (ADI), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dell (DELL), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Urban Outfitters (URBN), HP (HPQ), and Petco (WOOF).
November 26: October new home sales and expected earnings from Deere (DE).
November 27: U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday.