[Screen shows “Weekly Market Outlook with Jeffrey Kleintop”]
[Jeff holds up illustration of a clipboard labeled "Job Application"]
From U.S. employment data for November to central bank meetings, Japan’s inflation reading, and a U.S. Senate panel featuring Wall Street CEOs, I’m Jeff Kleintop with what you need to know for the week ahead.
Economists forecast the November unemployment rate on Friday to remain at 3.9%, up from 3.4% earlier this year, but that would bring the 3-month moving average to 3.9%, triggering a recession rule, discovered by a former Federal Reserve economist, that signals when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by a half-percentage point relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
Economists expect non-farm payrolls grew
[Jeff holds up an illustration of people holding signs labeled "Strike"]
by about a 190,000 jobs in November, including about 30,000 due to the resolution of the UAW strike. But the hiring is likely to be concentrated in two sectors—health care and government—with most other sectors flat or negative. Consistent with the labor market weakening, Tuesday’s data may show the number of job openings declined further in October.
No change to policy is expected
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a sun hidden by a cloud labeled "Central Bank Forecast"]
at the Australia, Canada, or India central bank meetings this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any revisions to economic forecasts and commentary about the potential for rate cuts in the first half of 2024.
Japan is the one major central bank
[Jeff holds up an illustration of the islands of Japan superimposed on a dark circle labeled "Japan"]
expected to hike rates next year. Key to the decision is whether inflation is becoming entrenched, and the Tokyo CPI release on Tuesday is seen as a leading indicator of Japan’s price trends. That will be the last CPI figure the Bank of Japan sees before its policy decision on December 19.
On Wednesday,
[Jeff holds up an illustration of the White House, labeled "Washington D.C."]
CEOs of the biggest banks on Wall Street, including JP Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are expected to testify on regulatory oversight to the Senate Banking Committee.
And on Thursday, European Commission and Council presidents
[Jeff holds up illustration of a dragon labeled "China"]
head to Beijing for the first in-person summit with China’s leadership in four years.
[Jeff holds up a note with the words “Thank you”]
Thanks for watching.
[Important disclosures are displayed.]
