Retail Results, Tech Stumble Precede Fed Minutes

Published as of: August 20, 2025, 9:08 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) After yesterday's tech washout, major indexes dipped  again early despite strong results from Lowe's (LOW). Tech shares were mixed as investors pondered reasons for the sudden weakness and awaited retail earnings from Walmart (WMT) tomorrow and a host of smaller companies next week.

The fledgling tech-led sell-off picked up steam intraday Tuesday with heavy hitters including Palantir (PLTR), Oracle (ORCL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and Nvidia (NVDA) down 3% or more. Palantir fell 9%, its worst day since late June.  However, near-term price momentum in the S&P 500—even with Tuesday's weakness—continues to support the bullish trend. The 20-day S&P 500 index moving average of 6,380 could represent a support level, and it's not surprising to see some consolidation heading toward Friday’s remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Minutes from the last Fed meeting are due later today.

Success has 1,000 fathers and failure is an orphan, the old saying goes. That wasn't the case for tech's stumble yesterday as analysts cited abundant possible reasons including worries ahead of Powell's speech, negative AI observations from influential experts, seasonal trends, profit-taking, and sector rotation. But the overall market looked resilient Tuesday and remains near all-time highs. The next big test for tech comes when Nvidia reports a week from today. Meanwhile, it's important to see if other sectors keep up yesterday's strength and provide some ballast if tech starts sinking again.

1. Fed minutes to reflect internal debate: Minutes from last month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could be especially interesting at 2 p.m. ET today considering the Fed saw two dissents on its decision to hold rates steady. Investors might want to read why two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, advocated easing rates for the first time since the Fed completed a 100-basis point cutting cycle last December. The Fed's press release last month said they both cited labor market weakness and the belief that tariffs would only pose a temporary price hurdle. Since then, other policy makers have said they remain uncertain if even a September cut is appropriate, though the market leans that way. The minutes could give some behind-the-scenes details lacking in the original release and perhaps reflect any debate and how open other Fed policy makers were to possible rate cuts later this year. Powell's speech is likely another harbinger of what to expect in September, but lots of data loom between now and the Fed's next meeting.
    
2. More BLS jobs revisions incoming: After downward revisions to recent jobs reports unnerved investors and frustrated President Trump earlier this month, more could be on the way. The preliminary benchmark revision to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) establishment survey job estimates will be released on September 9. The BLS establishment survey data is based only on employment sample estimates, and once a year it's benchmarked against comprehensive state unemployment insurance tax records to help correct for potential sample errors. In the past, that has led to significant changes to the BLS jobs figures. Last year, for example, the preliminary benchmark revision led to an 818,000 reduction of jobs for the 12 months through March 2024. This year's benchmarking could have big implications for the Fed, which has been closely watching the cooling labor market as it ponders interest rate cuts. It may also spark a reaction from Trump in the wake of his August 1 firing of BLS chief Erika McEntarfer. That came after a weak July jobs report and substantial downward revisions to the May and June jobs reports. The next Fed meeting is September 16–17.
    
3. Sector outcomes belie Tuesday's index weakness: As the broader market fell yesterday, volatility grew from a couple of weeks ago. Overall, though, there's an extreme lack of downside hedging activity, implying that institutional investors might not be getting too bearish just yet. And that's reinforced by the fact that seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished flat to higher yesterday even as the S&P 500 index itself fell 0.58%. Mega-cap stocks form about 45% of the value of the entire S&P 500, meaning when they struggle it makes the index look worse. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW), which gives the same weighting to each member stock, rose 0.45% Tuesday as real estate, health care, staples, utilities, and materials stocks all advanced, meaning investors should be looking under the surface for the full story.

• Lowe's popped 3% after reporting earnings today that surpassed analysts' earnings per share estimates and roughly matched revenue expectations. It raised guidance for the fiscal year and reported an improvement in sales at stores open a year or more. It also announced it's buying Foundation Building Materials, a home professional-focused company, as it steers its business to attract professional renovators.
   
• Target (TGT) plunged nearly 10% early today despite earnings per share and revenue that both beat expectations. The company also reaffirmed guidance. One reason cited for early weakness was Target's announcement that Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke will succeed CEO Brian Cornell early next year. Some investors might have hoped for an external hire to bring fresh perspective, Barron's observed. Also, sales fell from a year ago and expectations for EPS and revenue were low.
   
• Other major tech names pulled back Tuesday along with Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia. Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 6%, AppLovin (APP) lost almost 6%, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) lost 5.7%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shed 5.4%. The reversal in tech isn't far enough along yet to call a trend, but may reflect investors shifting into other parts of the market looking for value. Palantir fell another 3% this morning ahead of the open and is down five days in a row.
   
• Crypto-related stocks including Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) were among the biggest losers on Wall Street yesterday, falling more than 5%. This came as bitcoin (/BTC) dropped 2.7% and at its intraday low touched its weakest price since July 10. Bitcoin has been playing defense since its latest all-time high above $125,000 last week, hurt in part by concerns the Fed could remain hawkish on rates, possibly curbing investor sentiment. Bitcoin gained about 0.63% early today.
   
• Estee Lauder (EL) crumbled 9% in early trading after missing analysts' earnings expectations and guiding below consensus.
   
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) tumbled 21.5% before the open as investors appeared disappointed by its outlook and earnings missed forecasts.
   
• Analog Devices (ADI) rose 3.5% on an earnings beat.
   
• Snowflake (SNOW) rose 2.4% following an upgrade by Bank of America to Buy from Neutral. The analysts cited momentum in Snowflake's business ahead of earnings next week.
   
• TJX (TJX) bounced 3.8% ahead of the open following solid earnings and a rise in fiscal 2026 earnings and comparable sales guidance.
   
• Toll Brothers (TOL) fell 1.6% despite beating earnings expectations and reporting strong home sales. Investors appeared unpleased with delivery guidance.
   
• The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in 83% odds of a rate cut next month.

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Women investors and their decisions: In the latest Financial Decoder episode, Schwab's Mark Riepe is joined by the head of Schwab's branch network, Jeannie Bidner, to discuss the results of a recent survey from Schwab on women investors. Jeannie shares key takeaways from the responses as well as her own insights, highlighting the motivators for women who invest, how they frame decisions about their portfolios, and the generational trends toward leaning more on community and digital resources for support in their financial lives.

Going into Tuesday's session, the equal weighted S&P 500 (SPXEW—candlesticks) was at its lowest level relative to the cap-weighted S&P 500 index (SPX—purple line) since August 2003. This reflects the outsized influence of trillion-dollar tech and other mega-cap stocks, which have helped the Nasdaq-100® (NDX—blue line) outpace both S&P indexes since May. However, Tuesday saw the SPXEW take some of that back as it gained on the NDX and SPX. It's only one day, not a trend, but if it continues it might suggest investors rotating more funds out of tech and putting them to work in less highly capitalized sectors. Decent market breadth despite yesterday's losses also speaks to that.

August 21: July existing home sales, July leading indicators, start of the Fed's Jackson Hole Policy Symposium, and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), and Ross Stores (ROST).
August 22: Expected earnings from BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ).
August 25: July new home sales.
August 26: July Durable goods, August consumer confidence, and expected earnings from MongoDB (MDB) and Box (BOX).
August 27: Expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Kohl's (KSS), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), HP (HPQ), Five Below (FIVE), and Urban Outfitters (URBN).