Schwab Market Update

Equity Futures Flat as Investors Await More Data

March 25, 2025 Joe Mazzola

Investors appeared to be hesitant ahead of the opening bell despite Monday's rally. More real estate and consumer data is expected this morning, which may be adding to uncertainty.

Published as of: March 24, 2025, 9:07 a.m. ET

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The markets	Last price	Change	% change
S&P 500^® index	5,767.57	+100.01	+1.76%
Dow Jones Industrial Average^®	42,583.32	+597.97	+1.42%
Nasdaq Composite^®	18,188.59	+404.54	+2.27%
10-year Treasury yield	4.34%	+0.02	--
U.S. Dollar Index	104.06	-0.20	-0.19%
Cboe Volatility Index^®	17.14	-0.34	-2.0%
WTI Crude Oil	$69.56	+$0.45	+0.65%
Bitcoin	$87,135	$87,135	-1.45%

(Tuesday market open) Equity futures were flat ahead of the market open as investors await more consumer and real estate data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index is due out just before the opening bell, while a new home sales report and the Conference Board's consumer confidence report are slated after the bell.

The bulls hope to build on Monday's rally but worries about a recession and uncertainty around tariffs remain. While investors welcomed news that President Trump was taking a more measured approach on which countries and products to tariff, without details, the news is causing confusion. However, the CBOE Volatility Index futures (/VX) were slightly lower in premarket action, suggesting that the tone may be more cautious than fearful.

Crude oil (/CL) appears to be bouncing off its $66.50 support after closing higher three of the last four trading sessions and rising another 0.75% in early trading. The commodity is closing in on the $70 level.

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Three things to watch

Muni munition: Treasury bonds sold off on Monday but that may signal a different fixed income opportunity. "Now presents an attractive entry point for munis," observed Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategist for the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Returns will be influenced by the direction of Treasury rates, but relative yields are near the highest they've been in a year and present an attractive entry point for investors looking for tax advantaged income."
GDP problems: The U.S. Q4 2024 final gross domestic product (GDP) comes out on Thursday. The previous print was 2.3% which is the highest in the world and the only country above 2%. The latest updates from China, Japan, and the United Kingdom are 1.6%, 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively. The Euro area is at 0% including Germany at –0.2%.
Stronger steel: Tariff talks have contributed to a lot of stock market volatility in recent months but, U.S. steel companies may be benefitting. The tariffs prompted UBS analysts to upgrade Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) to Buy from Neutral. Hot-rolled coil steel futures have shot up nearly 32% year-to-date, prompting Nucor to hike prices eight times, but other metal related futures haven't faired as well. A stronger steel supply chain and higher tariffs were cited by Hyundai Chairman Chung Euisun as reasons why Hyundai would build a new steel factory in Louisiana.

On the move

KB Homes (KBH) tumbled 8.94% after Monday's close on lower than expected earnings and revenue. The company saw sales fall 5.2% year over year and offered forward guidance below analysts' forecasts.
Nuclear tech company, Oklo (OKLO) fell 6.83% in extended hours trading after reporting a bigger loss than the previous year. Oklo is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that went public last May. CEO Jacob DeWitte said the company was "on track to deliver commercial power by the end of 2027, backed by a strong and growing customer pipeline."
McCormick (MKC) slid 1.36% in premarket trading after missing earnings estimates. The stock had actually fallen more than 4% but trimmed its losses ahead of the bell. The company reported flat sales growth and overseas revenues were hurt by the stronger U.S. dollar.
Tesla (TSLA) reported that its February European sales fell 40% year over year, according to the Financial Times. However, the stock traded 1.7% higher in premarket action.
Copper futures (/HG) were up 1.13% in early action as the bulls look to make a new 52-week high. Copper has been battling resistance around the $5.10 mark that was set last May.

More insights from Schwab

Navigating tariffs: Stay on top of the tariff news with help from Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. His latest article, "Investor's Guide to the April Tariffs," will help you sort through the news.

Chart of the day

Three-year chart of the S&P 500 and its 200-day moving average. The SPX has been uptrending since it was at about 4,500 in April of 2023. It went up to 6,154 before falling to 5,600, below the average. It's testing the average around 5,750.

Data sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.

The 200-day moving average is used by technical analysts as a way to determine the long-term trend of a security. The S&P 500 stock index was downtrending in 2022 and trading below the 200-day moving average. The index was able to move back above its average the first part of 2023, eventually pushing the average bullish. It briefly fell below the average in the fall of 2022 but stayed above the average until March of 2025. The index is trying once again to bounce back above the average. However, if it fails and the average turns down, many technicians may see it as a bearish sign.

The week ahead

Check out the Investors' Calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap next week.

March 26: February durable goods and expected earnings from Chewy (CHWY), Petco (WOOF), and Dollar Tree (DLTR).
March 27: Final Q4 gross domestic product, wholesale inventories, pending home sales, and expected earnings from Lululemon (LULU), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), AAR (AIR), and Winnebago (WGO).
March 28: PCE price index and Michigan consumer sentiment.
March 31: Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and earnings from PVH (PVH).
April 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI^®, JOLTs job openings, and earnings from Cal-Maine Foods (CALM).

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