Slumping Stocks Get Tech Lift Heading Into Nvidia

Published as of: November 19, 2025, 9:20 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) The keystone event of the week and perhaps the month comes after the close when Nvidia (NVDA) reports, but first investors eye results from Lowe's (LOW) and Target (TGT) ahead of Fed minutes and tomorrow's jobs report. Major indexes clawed back overnight from yesterday's one-month lows, but direction the rest of the week could depend on Nvidia's performance. Shares of the AI giant compose more than 7% of the S&P 500 index, and a large move in the stock is expected when it reports.

Fed minutes at 2 p.m. ET could offer new perspective on a familiar debate about which poses more of a threat: stubborn inflation or an unsteady labor market. Thursday's September nonfarm payrolls data will offer some clarity, with tepid jobs growth of 50,000 expected. Layoffs spiked in October, possibly making data from that month and November more consequential. Any sign of much stronger- or weaker-than-expected September jobs growth could show up in bond trading, where the benchmark 10-year yield has been stuck between around 4% and 4.15% lately amid a lack of data. Meanwhile, a December rate cut now looks like a 50-50 proposition, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Stocks fell Tuesday for the fourth straight session on tech weakness after a midday attempt to pare losses failed, though five of 11 sectors gained. The S&P 500 index is in its longest slide since August and 4% below the all-time high posted in late October. It hasn't suffered a 5% decline since April, but several of those tend to happen each year. At times like these, investors often focus on the negative, but seasonally this is a strong period, and third quarter earnings rose far more than analysts had expected. Chip stocks have led the retreat but many, including Nvidia, rose in pre-market action today ahead of this afternoon's fireworks.

1. Curtains open on Nvidia: Investors will look for a read on AI spending, the impact of rising competition, and expansion to new growth areas as Nvidia reports. Nvidia's last two quarterly releases disappointed investors as the company removed China revenue from its guidance and saw margins decline. "Investors have come to expect a beat or a raise every time Nvidia has an earnings release, so assuming Nvidia delivers again, expectations will be matched against the degree of beat, with emphasis on forward guidance," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Investors will be listening for any potential signs of deceleration in AI compute demand or competitive pricing pressures. Given the slew of AI deals that have been announced this quarter, along with the guide up in capital expenditures from the so-called 'hyperscalers,' one would think that demand has yet to reach saturation."
    
2. Numbers to know as Nvidia reports: At a recent conference, Nvidia said it has $500 billion in orders on the books for its Blackwell and Rubin graphics processing units through 2026. If those numbers start translating into the company's forward revenue guidance, it could mean that analysts' previous revenue outlooks for next year start looking light, giving Nvidia a chance to beat. However, investors frequently find ways to be disappointed when Nvidia reports. For reference, Nvidia's revenues rose 55.6% year over year the last time it reported to $46.7 billion, while its earnings per share (EPS) jumped 29.6% to $1.05. Both topped consensus estimates, but only by 1.3% for revenues and 3.9% for EPS. With investors pricing in performance well ahead of analysts' forecasts, the stock fell slightly. Analysts expect earnings per share this time of $1.25 on revenue of $54.9 billion. That revenue would be up 56.6% from a year ago.
    
3. AI selling reflects more than valuation: Amazon (AMZN) became the latest major firm to come under the AI microscope this week, along with Meta Platforms (META) and Oracle (ORCL), as they tap into debt markets to support their data center investments and other spending. Major banks including Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were among those managing Amazon's bond sale, according to Bloomberg, meaning Wall Street's largest lenders are keeping their foot in the AI pursuit. Guidance from Nvidia showing any sort of slowdown in chip demand beyond the coming quarter or two might ironically ease some of the spending worries on Wall Street around hyperscalers, which are increasingly being asked to show the money when it comes to return on investment. "The AI concern is not as much about high valuation as it is high debt issuance and over-investment concerns," Peterson said. If the heavy investment was firmly translating into bottom line return on investment today, then valuation might not be as big of an issue. However, since investors are being asked to trust that heavy investment will be fruitful in a couple years, this leads to skepticism, and less willingness to pay up now. As the wait drags, volatility continues to spike, making investors nervous and more prone to sell.

• Lowe's soared more than 6% in pre-market trading after earnings per share easily beat analysts' consensus and revenue met expectations. Guidance was a mixed affair, with the company's 2026 revenue forecast edging above Wall Street's but earnings per share on the low side of its previous range. Lowe's expects sales to be flat at stores open a year or more in the coming year. Comparable sales last quarter edged up despite lack of hurricane activity, but macroeconomic headwinds persist, Lowe's said.
   
• Target slipped nearly 3% before the open despite topping Wall Street's consensus on earnings per share and reporting revenues that met consensus. It also reaffirmed sales guidance for the current holiday quarter but cut the top end of its full-year earnings guidance and suffered a 2.7% comparable sales drop in the third quarter. Target's overall sales have flattened over the last four years, but the fourth quarter tends to post the highest revenue of the year.
   
• Nvidia climbed 1.75% in pre-market trading but isn't far off nearly one-month lows touched yesterday and shares are flat over the last three months. Investors might want to watch for comments today about the company's recent agreements, including with OpenAI and OpenAI's rival, Anthropic.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) slipped 1.2% this morning after hitting a multi-month low early Tuesday below $90,000. That level appeared to find some buyers but will likely be watched again today. Shares of crypto-related firms, including Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) were mixed, with Strategy down and the others up.
   
• AI-related shares Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir (PLTR), all rose this morning ahead of Nvidia's earnings.
   
• Constellation Energy (CEG) jumped more than 2% in pre-market trading after the company confirmed that its Crane Clean Energy Center is now backed by a $1 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan, Briefing.com reported. This loan will help finance investment in nuclear energy at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.
   
• Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia each fell about 2.6% Tuesday after the two committed to invest up to a combined $15 billion in Anthropic BC. This move, Bloomberg reported, ties the AI developer, Anthropic, closer to two of the biggest backers for its rival OpenAI. Anthropic has also committed to purchase $30 billion of computing capacity from Microsoft's Azure cloud service.
   
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) climbed 0.5% in pre-market trading before earnings this afternoon. Shares are down around 10% from recent highs, but last time it reported, the cybersecurity firm topped expectations and issued strong guidance.
   
• DoorDash (DASH) climbed 2.6% after Jefferies upgraded it to Buy from Hold, citing possible upside to consensus estimates amid faster growth in U.S. restaurant delivery over the last four quarters.
   
• Walmart (WMT) fell slightly ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report. Shares are roughly flat this month and down about 10% from their October peak. Last time out, Walmart raised guidance but reported tariff-related headwinds that forced it to raise prices on some items.
   
• Checking money flows, over the last week U.S. large-cap exchange-traded funds (ETFs) had the largest inflows.
   
• With volatility still near recent highs and bitcoin down this morning, it appears the market's "risk-off" sentiment continues. Crude oil also fell, and Treasuries rose, both possible signs of economic jitters, with crude reacting to a larger-than-expected weekly build in U.S. supplies, according to CNBC.

The S&P 500 index's (SPX—candlestick) drop beneath its 50-day moving average (blue line) near 6,710 this week followed several recent tests of that important chart level. Previous tests were followed by rebounds but may have set the stage for this move. "While it's a good sign to see a bounce at a key support level like the 50-day, it's not a good sign to see an increase in the frequency of 'support tests' at an indicator because this may suggest that the floor will eventually give in and lead to additional downside," Peterson said. The October low of 6,552 might be a level to watch on further pullbacks. That level isn't far from the 100-day moving average of 6,536 (red line).

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 20: October existing home sales, October leading indicators, September nonfarm payrolls, and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Macy's (M), Intuit (INTU), and Gap (GAP).
November 21: Final November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and expected earnings from BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ).
November 24: Expected earnings from Zoom Communications (ZM).
November 25: November consumer confidence and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Nio (NIO), Analog Devices (ADI), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dell (DELL), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Urban Outfitters (URBN), HP Inc. (HPQ), and Petco (WOOF).
November 26: October new home sales and expected earnings from Deere (DE).