Risk Still Hibernating: AI, Crypto Lead Retreat

Published as of: November 18, 2025, 9:15 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Struggles spilled into a fourth straight session with AI stocks and cryptocurrencies shedding weight as volatility hit one-month highs. Traders appear to be taking risk off the table ahead of key data and earnings releases, including Nvidia (NVDA) tomorrow and the September jobs report Thursday. Adding to market misery, Home Depot (HD) checked in this morning with earnings that disappointed.

As Home Depot and other retailers report this week, a key event might be Friday's November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. That's not to give short shrift to Thursday morning's September nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show around 50,000 jobs added. But government data are dated, including today's month-old weekly jobless claims. "It's still going to take time to get a firm grip on what's happening," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "There's a high likelihood that there will be significant revisions."

November's washout worsened Monday as the S&P 500 index closed at one-month lows.  If the month ended today, it would be the first negative one since April, dragged by an 8% drop in semiconductor stocks and a 17% decline in bitcoin (/BTC) as air hisses out of the speculative tire. Nvidia's valuation is about 7% of the entire S&P 500 index, so whichever way its shares move could have a big impact. Nvidia earnings share the spotlight Wednesday afternoon with Federal Reserve minutes, and the market's recent uncertainty coincides with falling rate cut odds. Chances of a cut next month were about 47% as of early Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "We are not expecting a cut," Jones said.

1. Holiday cheer sought ahead of retail earnings: As retailers report, investors will expect some guidance on consumers and how comfortable they feel opening their wallets going into prime shopping season. Sentiment in early November fell to historic lows, according to the University of Michigan, but Bank of America (BAC) reported total credit and debit card spending rose 2.4% year over year in October, the strongest annual growth since early 2024. Holiday shopping is up, but consumers may be paying more for less, Bank of America said. In other words, inflation could raise the amount spent even if consumers buy fewer items, and Bank of America data shows retail transaction volumes have slightly declined. Consumers expect to spend 3.9% less on gifts this holiday season versus last, not adjusted for inflation, the Conference Board said in its October consumer confidence report. The preliminary November sentiment data showed a 17% drop in current personal finances and investors worried about the shutdown. Friday's update could show whether the end of the shutdown improved moods, while jobless claims edged up to 232,000 this morning—for the week of October 18.
    
2. Choppiness, nerves, unchecked: Though the S&P 500 index remains just 2% below recent all-time highs, volatility remains elevated and signals possible rough roads ahead. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has now spent more time above 20 in the last month than it spent in the three months between late June and late September. Though 20 is near the historic average for the market's so-called "fear index," it's also often seen as a dividing line between relaxation and tension among investors, and the futures market shows VIX remaining above 20 in months to come. "Nervousness in U.S. equities appears to be building," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR. "Another sign of investors becoming more edgy is the recent pickup in sharp daily declines." This month alone, the S&P 500 has logged three trading days of falling 1% or more, bringing the quarter-to-date total to four. In the entire previous quarter, there was only one such day.  It narrowly missed a fourth 1%-down day yesterday.
    
3. Strategy buys the dip: Though crypto treasury companies have been hammered during crypto's recent slide, the whale has started doubling down. As bitcoin (/BTC) slid below $100,000 last week, Strategy (MSTR) bought $835 million of bitcoin throughout the week, according to a filing Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission that was posted on the company's website. That brings MSTR's total holdings to nearly 650,000 coins, worth around $60 billion as of Monday morning. MSTR, once a software company, is far and away the world's biggest bitcoin treasury company. MSTR's shares have been sliding even faster than bitcoin. They've plunged 47% since October 6, the day bitcoin reached its record high, while bitcoin has fallen around 28%. The shares closed 2% lower Monday.

• Nvidia fell another 1% early Tuesday after a regulatory filing showed that tech billionaire Peter Thiel's hedge fund has sold all its Nvidia shares. The stake was worth about $100 million, according to Bloomberg. This comes after SoftBank sold a large amount of Nvidia shares recently. Separately, a Bloomberg analysis of hedge funds found an even split on sentiment around the chipmaker.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) pared losses as the market open approached after dipping below $90,000 overnight for the first time in almost seven months. Shares of crypto-related firms, including Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) were all down early. 
   
• The financial sector was one of the worst performers on Wall Street Monday as credit concerns  that temporarily stalled the rally last month returned. "Credit fears, while relatively benign at this point, are starting to build and that certainly doesn't help risk assets either," said Alex Coffey, senior trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab.
   
• Credit-related worries showed up in shares of Blue Owl Capital (OWL), a U.S. alternative investment asset management company. The stock fellalmost 6% Monday and another 2% early today. The firm, which is involved with Meta Platforms (META) in financing a Louisiana data center, moved to block redemptions from one of its private credit funds, Reuters reported. Blue Owl is merging two credit funds, a private one and a publicly traded one.
   
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) dropped 4% Monday and United Airlines (UAL) lost 5% despite the U.S. government ending shutdown-related flight restrictions. The weakness came as investors worried about the impact of those restrictions on fourth quarter earnings for the industry.
   
• AI-related shares Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir (PLTR), and Oracle (ORCL), along with Nvidia, all were down 1% to 2% early Tuesday as caution continued to stalk the tech sector.
   
• Both Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading after separate downgrades from Rothschild & Co. "It's time to take a more cautious stance on the hyperscalers," the firm wrote, adding that the underlying economics "are far weaker than assumed." However, investment banking firm Stifel raised its price target on Nvidia and increased its estimates ahead of tomorrow's earnings report.
   
• Home Depot fell 3.6% early after the firm's latest quarterly results came up short on earnings per share, though revenues met expectations. The company also guided for fiscal 2026 revenue and earnings below consensus. It's the third straight quarterly miss. Poor consumer sentiment and tariffs, along with stubbornly high mortgages, have hurt home improvement firms, but the recent quarter also saw lower-than-usual storm activity, limiting demand. Lowe's (LOW) reports tomorrow—and fell 3% this morning.
   
• Cloudflare (NET) fell 4.7% this morning as an outage affected several major websites and services including OpenAI's ChatGPT and Elon Musk's X platform. The company blamed a spike in unusual traffic, CNBC reported.
   
• Medtronic (MDT) jumped more than 3% after the firm surpassed Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations thanks in part to strong growth in cardiovascular products. It also raised its outlook.
   
• Honeywell (HON) dropped 2% after getting downgraded by Bank of America to Underperform from Buy. The analyst called the catalyst path "challenging."
   
• U.S. money market fund assets squeaked out another record high last week above $7.54 trillion, suggesting more money moving to the sidelines.
   
• Technically, the charts turned weaker yesterday as the S&P 500 index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since late April. The 50-day average now stands at 6,707.

In 2025, old-fashioned gold has wildly outperformed bitcoin, dubbed "digital gold" by those who see it as a store of value. While gold futures (/GC—green line) have risen more than 50% since the start of the year, bitcoin futures (/BTC—red line) are down around 3% during the same time. Gold has fallen around 9% from the record high it reached in October, while bitcoin has tumbled around 28% from the record high it set last month.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 19: FOMC minutes, October housing starts and building permits and expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and TJX Companies (TJX).
November 20: October existing home sales, October leading indicators, September nonfarm payrolls, and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Macy's (M), Intuit (INTU), and Gap (GAP).
November 21: Final November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and expected earnings from BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ).
November 24: Expected earnings from Zoom Communications (ZM)
November 25: November consumer confidence and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Nio (NIO), Analog Devices (ADI), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dell (DELL), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK), Urban Outfitters (URBN), HP Inc. (HPQ), and Petco (WOOF).