Stocks Waver with Crude Up Again, Fed and PPI Next

Published as of: March 17, 2026, 9:16 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Wall Street teetered between red and green early today following Monday's rebound, initially pressured by rising crude prices and questions surrounding a U.S.-backed plan to get oil flowing again. President Trump's pleas for assistance to open the critical Strait of Hormuz appeared to fall on mostly deaf ears, though Britain and France are considering it, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Nvidia's (NVDA) GPU Tech Conference (GTC) kicked off late yesterday with a cheerful demand outlook from CEO Jensen Huang, though shares of the AI giant barely budged this morning. The Federal Reserve gathers today for its two-day meeting and is expected to keep rates unchanged Wednesday afternoon while delivering updated economic projections and a new "dot plot" of possible rate paths. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely be asked about the war's impact on the economy.

On Monday, major indexes rebounded as crude retreated, with oil and the S&P 500 Index continuing to display a strong inverse correlation. "Time is the enemy here," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The longer this drags out, the more acute the pain points become." 

1. Powell could overshadow rate decision: The Fed meeting is likely to end with no change in rates but begins with intrigue. The mystery regards Powell's plans, assuming his term ends on time in May. Timing is in question because Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina vowed to block voting on President Trump's nominee for chairman, Kevin Warsh, until a criminal investigation of Powell ends. The investigation, related to the Fed's headquarters renovation, faces roadblocks after a judge last week denied the administration's request to subpoena Powell. Assuming Warsh eventually takes over, Powell could remain on the Fed's board of governors because his board term doesn't end until early 2028. Staying would deny Trump an appointment for now, and Powell's decision could depend on where the criminal case is when his term as chairman ends. "Don't expect much from Fed meeting but expect Powell will be asked about whether he's likely to stay on as governor when he leaves the chair post," Sonders said.
    
2. Price, housing data looms: Though the Producer Price Index (PPI) won't reflect war-related price impacts since it was collected last month, it's been an interesting metric lately, showing signs of hotter costs even before oil spiked. PPI, due at 8:30 a.m. ET tomorrow, is expected to rise 0.4% for the core reading excluding food and energy, down from January's surprising 0.8% monthly gain. Wholesale prices can be a canary in the coal mine for consumer prices, as higher costs at the wholesale level sometimes get passed along to customers. There's also a batch of fresh housing numbers on tap this week, including pending home sales today and January new home sales Thursday. February existing home sales prices barely rose, according to the National Association of Realtors, which said housing affordability is improving. That also might be evident in another figure from the same report: First time buyers made up 34% of sales, up from 31% in January. That metric bears watching in months ahead because if it stays elevated or gains, it could indicate younger and less affluent buyers finally wading in during an era when the average age of a first-time buyer has risen substantially.
    
3. Demand up for crude along with prices: Crude oil (/CL) climbed above $95 per barrel early today after dropping below $94 yesterday. "Diesel fuel prices in the U.S.—the lifeblood of freight, agriculture, and construction—have risen above $5 per gallon," noted Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR. One thing to watch is whether U.S. producers try to increase output in response to high prices. Tomorrow's weekly U.S. government crude oil inventories report looms after a 3.82 million barrel increase the prior week. Inventories remain 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, demand is growing seasonally and investors might want to check tomorrow for any sign of further gains. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up by 0.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 7.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.

• Nvidia inched up less than 1% this morning. CEO Jensen Huang said at the company's GTC conference late Monday revenue from Nvidia hardware could total $1 trillion through 2027 as demand climbs thanks to inference. This implies $50 billion to $70 billion more revenue than the Wall Street consensus for 2026-2027, and JPMorgan kept an overweight rating on shares. Huang said he believes AI is accelerating, and the company's Vera Rubin chips are expected to debut later this year. Nvidia also unveiled its Nvidia Groq 3 Language Processing Unit, CNBC reported.
   
• Lululemon (LULU) climbed less than 1% early ahead of results this afternoon. Earnings come amid a proxy battle as founder Chip Wilson tries to change the company's board, news first reported earlier this year by The Wall Street Journal. Last time lululemon reported, it beat expectations, but its U.S. business remained under pressure.
   
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) climbed 4.5% in early trading after saying it sees first quarter revenue growth in the high single digits. Its previous guidance was for revenue to be up 5% to 7%.
   
• Lyft (LYFT) added more than 3% after announcing late yesterday it plans to "make rides smarter and more efficient through Agentic AI," and use Nvidia AI to enhance its machine learning systems. Competitor Uber (UBER) rose today, possibly on Lyft's coattails.
   
• Honeywell International (HON) dipped more than 1% early today after warning that the war could hurt first-quarter revenue. The conflict is pushing up energy prices, squeezing raw material supplies, and raising doubts about key trade routes. That combination is raising costs and putting pressure on margins across multiple industries.
   
• Eli Lilly (LLY) dropped 1% after getting downgraded by HSBC to reduce from hold. The firm thinks expectations for obesity's total addressable market are elevated at over $150 billion. The market is likely to be $80 billion to $120 billion by 2032, and price competition "is likely to be significant," the analyst told investors in a research note.
   
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) climbed more than 5% Monday after reporting better-than-expected earnings and guidance.
   
• Shares of nuclear energy start-up Oklo (OKLO) put up an 8% early gain after it announced it has secured its first license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Oklo aims for commercial production of power by 2028, Barron's said.
   
• Consumer-focused stocks performed well Monday and remain closely tied to the ups and downs of oil. Cruise lines, Tesla (TSLA), and airlines advanced. However, the airline sub-sector of consumer discretionary is among the worst market performers this year and was down sharply from January highs even before the war began.
   
• Technically, the S&P 500 Index hovers not far above its 200-day moving average near 6,610 despite yesterday's gain, and Monday's "inside" session where the index stayed within the highs and lows from Friday didn't help matters technically. Bulls wanted Friday's high of 6,733 taken out and didn't get it. The 200-day average remains a potential support point.
   
• The Nasdaq Composite clawed above its 200-day simple moving average of 22,191 Monday after closing below it Friday for the first time since May. Continued closes above that level might be viewed as constructive.
   
• U.S. large-cap exchange-traded funds (ETF) saw the heaviest outflows last week, while precious metals outflows were a distant second. Government bonds saw the largest inflows.

Three weeks into the war, crude oil futures (red and yellow lines) have roughly the same 30-month destination as before the conflict began. The red line shows the current futures curve dropping to near $60 per barrel by late 2029 from $94 now. The yellow line is the pre-war curve showing nearly the same destination. One difference, however, is that participants believe crude will remain above $70 per barrel for at least a year, not high from a 21st century standpoint but $10 above previous thinking. This could mean margin pressures for many companies.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
 

March 18: FOMC rate decision, Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision, February PPI, and expected earnings from General Mills (GIS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Micron (MU), and Five Below (FIVE).
March 19: ECB rate decision and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (ACN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and FedEx (FDX).
March 20: No major data or earnings expected.
March 23: January construction spending.
March 24: Expected earnings from GameStop (GME) and KB Home (KBH).