Stocks Resilient Amid Trade Talks, Earnings Deluge

Published as of: July 29, 2025, 9:25 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Major indexes resumed their upward march ahead of job openings and consumer confidence data. Investors mulled a mixed batch of earnings from Boeing (BA), Merck (MRK), UPS (UPS), and UnitedHealth (UNH), and prepared for another jolt later from Starbucks (SBUX) and Visa (V). Separately, the market awaits news from U.S. trade talks with China and results of a 7-year Treasury note auction, with yields down slightly early Tuesday.

The next four days feature earnings from four of the Magnificent Seven along with around 150 other S&P 500 firms, a Federal Reserve meeting, and July's nonfarm payrolls report. The four mega-caps reporting Wednesday and Thursday form nearly 20% of the market value of the S&P 500, so with that, the Fed meeting, and China negotiations all lurking, trading could stay in a narrow range. The S&P 500 index (SPX) hasn't had a daily 1% move so far this month, though it's up nearly 3% since the end of June. 

On Monday, the SPX staged a late comeback to post its sixth straight record close, though declining shares outpaced advancing ones as highly valued firms in info tech, consumer discretionary, and communication services led the way. Today's key data are the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June and the consumer confidence report for July, both due soon after the open. Analysts expect job openings of 7.55 million, a bit below 7.76 million in May.

1. Trade drama not completely over: Earlier yesterday the market sagged, possibly hurt by mixed Treasury auction demand and "sell on the news" profit taking after the trade deal with Europe. "Tariff worst-case outcomes appear off the table for now," said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Tariff rates are up sharply from the start of the year, and we don't know where rates will settle. Larger trade partners and sectors yet to be decided include Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan, as well as pharmaceutical and semiconductors. A China deal is also outstanding, but tensions appear to have eased."
    
2. 'Tis the season… markets head into traditionally weaker period: The rally so far this month squares with historic patterns, including a year ago, that often see strength in early July and then a dip. "Seasonally—for those who buy into that—the first half of July is historically strong but late July through October is historically a period of consolidation," said Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Schwab. Though past isn't precedent, a couple of market signals suggest challenges ahead, including low volatility, elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 index, and a high relative strength index (RSI) for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100^® (NDX). Both are above 70, which is traditionally what participants see as overbought territory. In fact, at 76 late last week, the RSI for the SPX is now the highest of the year. One result of stocks being priced historically high is showing up in earnings. On average, S&P 500 companies that miss on earnings per share this season are underperforming the index by nearly 5% the day they report.
    
3. Technically, yesterday's close looked resilient: For a while Monday it appeared another record closing high would be unachievable, but the index found buyers in the last half hour to avert a decline. The last lower close for the S&P 500 index was July 18, but many of the recent settlements have been barely above the previous day's, suggesting momentum may be waning. The Nasdaq also posted another record high close Monday. "It's difficult to go against trend, especially when markets are steadily marching to all-time highs in price discovery mode," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Although we are near-term overbought, oftentimes traders will ride the prevailing trend until a technical reversal pattern shows up before shifting to a more cautious stance." Such a reversal hasn't shown up yet in the charts, he added.

• Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) both added more than 1% early Tuesday following firm finishes Monday. The two AI chip competitors have surged since last week after Alphabet raised its capital spending outlook. Investors appear optimistic that data center spending from mega caps reporting later this week could mean more good news for the chip stocks.
   
• Nucor (NUE) slumped more than 5% after earnings per share beat analysts' estimates but revenue came in shy. The company said it's encouraged by resilient demand.
   
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) added another 0.5% early following a double-digit gain yesterday. It and other tech stocks appeared to get a boost from U.S. talks with China, which raised hopes for easier access to that market.
   
• Corning (GLW) climbed 5% ahead of the open as it beat analysts' revenue and earnings expectations and guided for better-than-expected third quarter results.
   
• Spotify (SPOT) tumbled 7.5% in early trading following an unexpected quarterly loss, hit by payroll taxes tied to share-based compensation, Barron's reported.
   
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) plunged 6.6% ahead of the open despite earnings and revenue that beat consensus views. However, its profit forecast for the current quarter appeared to disappoint.
   
• UnitedHealth (UNH) dropped almost 1% as earnings per share just missed analysts' expectations, hurt by rising costs due to rising utilization of care.
   
• Merck plunged 4.5% in pre-market trading as second quarter revenue just missed analysts' estimate and fell 2% from a year earlier. The company raised the bottom end of its adjusted earnings guidance range, and said it's trying to cut costs as key drugs face market challenges.
   
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) lost 22% in early trading after lowering its full-year sales and profit outlook on expected slower U.S. growth for its Wegovy obesity drug. The company now expects 8% to 14% sales growth, down from the previous forecast of 13% to 21%.
   
• SoFi (SOFI) jumped 8% after beating analysts' earnings estimates and raising guidance.
   
• Boeing gained 2% in the pre-market hours as quarterly losses were smaller than expected and revenue rose nearly 35% year over year. Production rate of both the 737 and 787 increased, and commercial airplane segment revenue jumped 81% in the second quarter. Shares are up 18% since mid-June.
   
• Whirlpool (WHR) capsized 14% after quarterly results missed Wall Street's expectations and the company cut guidance. U.S. tariff policy appeared to hurt the company, but Whirlpool said it thinks evolving tariff policies will ultimately support U.S. manufacturers.
   
• Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) both rolled backward as the two railroads announced a deal in which UNP will acquire NSC for $320 per share. As Bloomberg noted, the deal will marry UNP's network in the western U.S. with Norfolk's East Coast routes, putting pressure on rivals CSX (CSX) and Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) BNSF to make deals.
   
• UPS slipped 2.8% ahead of the open as earnings per share just missed the average Wall Street estimate. Revenue fell from a year ago but topped Wall Street's expectations and the company said it's on track to achieve its savings targets. But it didn't provide 2025 guidance, citing economic uncertainty.
   
• The U.S. dollar index edged higher and is up about 2% from last week's three-year lows as investors eyed U.S. trade deals with Japan and Europe. The deals could bring more revenue in tariffs and appeared to avoid repercussions against U.S. products. For now, the dollar's bounce appears to reflect a "mean reversion" trade after the recent weakness, Gibley said.

Tariff impacts assessed as stocks hit records: Could recent stock market highs mean the worst impact of tariffs are behind us? That's the question my colleague Michelle Gibley addresses in her latest analysis. So far, there've been mitigating factors that kept tariffs from initially having a big impact on inflation, growth, or earnings. But price pressures may be starting to get felt, she warns.

The S&P 500 (SPX—blue line) has rebounded sharply from its April lows and is up 9% year to date. Averaged over the last 20 years, however (yellow line), S&P 500 performance has tended to flatten from here, especially in the late summer and autumn, before reviving again in November and December.

Check out the Investors' Calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

July 30: Second quarter GDP first estimate and expected earnings from Altria (MO), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Humana (HUM), Etsy (ETSY), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), Carvana (CVNA), Allstate (ALL), Ford (F), and MGM (MGM).
July 31: June personal income, June personal spending, June PCE prices, and expected earnings from CVS Health (CVS), Biogen (BIIB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase Global (COIN), Clorox (CLX), Roku (ROKU), and Lumen Technologies (LUMN).
August 1: July nonfarm payrolls, final July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, July ISM Manufacturing PMI^®, and expected earnings from Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).
August 4: June factory orders and expected earnings from Tyson Foods (TSN), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Wayfair (W), and Palantir (PLTR).
August 5: July ISM Services PMI^® and expected earnings from Pfizer (PFE), Caterpillar (CAT), BP (BP), Marriott (MAR), Duke Energy (DUK), DuPont (DD), Cummins (CMI), Yum! Brands (YUM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Amgen (AMGN), Arista Networks (ANET), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Snap (SNAP), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN).