Looking to the Futures

S&P Remains Flat Ahead of Fed Announcement.

July 29, 2025 Ryan Hinsen
S&P futures have remained largely flat, partially due to investors remaining cautious as markets await key economic data later this week.

Traders are weighing the recent resilience of the U.S. economy against the next Fed meeting where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, increasing the probability that we only see one rate change later this year in December. The CME FedWatch tool is currently pricing in a 97.4% probability that rates will continue to hold the 425-450 bps level at the time of this writing.  

Aside from remaining relatively range bound this morning, the S&P 500 index, which is known for its broad market attributes, had a strong second quarter of 2025 and is trading at 6389 just 12 points off the all-time high of 6401. As we hang close to the high, CNN’s Fear and Greed index currently comes in at 74 which is one point below the highest level of “extreme greed”.  

Earnings season’s busiest week kicked off Monday on the 28th with more than 38% of the stocks in the S&P 500 set to report. This is double the amount from the previous week of July which included key stocks. Tesla for example had a large pullback after earnings on July 23rd where the stock closed at $332.56 and opened the following morning at $310. This is mostly due to a decline in sales and increases in costs. Since then, Tesla has closed the gap rebounding to a high of $330.49 on Monday. Tesla announced today they have reached a $16.5 billion dollar deal with Samsung to produce chips in Tyler, Texas. Looking forward this week, we have four of the magnificent seven reporting throughout the week including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Some notable earnings for Tuesday July 29th include United Health Group, PayPal, and Boeing set to report before the market opens.  

Gold futures (/GC) opened Monday morning at 3321.1, about 0.4% down from Friday’s close and is currently trading down another six and a half points at 3314.6. Gold, which has been holding strong since hitting highs on April 23rd is on track to close down for the fourth day in a row. This is partially due to new of a trade deal between the US and EU which includes a 15% tariff on most European goods (including cars), which is down from the 30% previously President Trump previously intended to put into action.  

Key economic indicators for today:

International Trade in Goods (Advanced), Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, JOLTS  

Looking to the Technicals

Chart setup: Symbol - /ES, Time Frame - 1 year 1 day, Studies – 20, 50, and 200 SMA and RSI.  

We can get a good picture of the strength the S&P 500 has had over the past two quarters, since hitting the low of 4832 on April 7th. The 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages continue to trend up, noting the S&P has only dipped below the 20-day a handful of times since the crossover of April 23rd suggesting the index has found the 20-day as a support level on this bullish run. The RSI shows momentum has moved into an overbought range, first crossing the 70-line on June 26. Although the RSI has crossed back and forth, it has still held a strong range strong since the June 26th.

S&P 500 Futures (/ES) Daily Chart

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