Looking to the Futures
Equity Indexes Bounce as Oil Eases from Session Highs
U.S. equity indexes rebounded from intraday lows Thursday morning as crude oil prices pulled back after surging nearly 9% early in the session. Early pressure on equities stemmed from concerns over the fragility of the two week ceasefire agreement and reports that the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. June S&P 500 futures (/ESM26) turned higher as WTI crude (/CL) sold off sharply following reports that Israel had agreed to enter negotiations with Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that negotiations would begin "as soon as possible," easing market concerns after reports indicated Israel has continued strikes in Lebanon despite the ceasefire taking effect Tuesday evening. Both the U.S. and Iran have already accused one another of violating the agreement, adding tension ahead of this weekend's negotiations. President Trump said Wednesday that he will be sending Vice President JD Vance and other senior officials to Pakistan in an effort to secure a permanent ceasefire with Iran. The President also pledged to keep U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks, as Iran warned that naval mines may still be present.
As of Thursday, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Iran continuing to restrict access. Iran's deputy foreign minister stated Thursday that vessels seeking passage through the Strait must communicate with Iranian authorities before entering. More than 800 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 more waiting on both sides of the strait for transit. These disruptions have kept oil prices elevated, with WTI crude settling on Thursday up 3.67% at $97.87 per barrel.
Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, equity markets have rebounded sharply from the recent lows. Week to date, the S&P 500 is up nearly 3.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 3.6%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 4.3%. Conversely, crude is down roughly 12% thus far on the week. Despite the broader rally and easing energy prices, markets remain hesitant on rate cut expectations. As of Thursday night, the CME's FedWatch tool showed the market pricing in a less than 2% probability of a rate cut at the next April 28–29 FOMC meeting.
In economic news, Thursday presented a mixed picture. Weekly initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 to an eight week high of 219,000, signaling some labor market softening. February core PCE index fell in line with expectations, rising 0.4% month over month and 3.0% year over year. Meanwhile, Q4 GDP was revised lower to +0.5% quarter over quarter annualized, down from the prior estimate of +0.7%.
Heading into Friday and a critical weekend, markets will be focused on the March CPI report Friday morning and developments from negotiations in Pakistan.
Technicals
On the daily chart, June S&P 500 futures (/ESM26) continued its upward trend Thursday, settling up 0.58% at 6,863.25. /ES has reclaimed its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs this week with Thursday marking the first close above all four since February 25th. /ES broke below the 200 day SMA in late March—its first breach since early March last year ahead of the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. While it took nearly two months to reclaim the level last year, it was regained in just 19 days this time around.
The 14-day RSI closed at 60.5, indicating bullish momentum but not yet overbought conditions. Volume decreased on Thursday relative to prior sessions, with 1,513,421 contracts traded – below the 50-day average of 1,711,650. According to the Daily Hightower Report, /ESM26 may find near-term support at the 6816.25 and 6762.63 levels and resistance near the 6899.75 and 6929.62 levels.
20-Day SMA: 6637.54
50-Day SMA: 6791.24
100-Day SMA: 6832.50
200-Day SMA: 6690.75
14-Day RSI: 60.5346
50-Day Volume Avg: 1,711,650
Contract Specifications
Economic Calendar
Consumer Price Index: 8:30 am ET
CPI Year Over Year: 8:30 am ET
Core CPI: 8:30 am ET
Core CPI Year Over Year: 8:30 am ET
Factory Orders: 10:00 am ET
Consumer Sentiment (Prelim): 10:00 am ET
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