Looking to the Futures

Equity markets rallied to start the week on news that the Iranian government may be interested in resuming talks over its nuclear program. Trade negotiations remain at the top of headlines with President Trump meeting with his counterparts near Banff Canada at the G-7 meeting. A barrage of economic news will be announced this week which could affect market volatility. Global bond yields were lower on Monday.

The S&P 500 closed +1.0% higher yesterday following Friday's sell off as investors were hopeful that the conflict between Israel and Iran will remain contained and not spread throughout the Middle East. The Iranian government spoke with Arab officials and indicated their willingness to negotiate with Israel over its nuclear program if the US does not join the attacks against Iran. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have continued for four days as of the time this was written with Israel targeting military sites and killing senior military officials in the Iranian army. Iran responded with several waves of drones and missiles. WTI crude oil prices increased sharply on Friday but gave back most of those gains yesterday. The Strait of Hormuz has remained unblocked which handles about 20% of the worlds daily crude shipments.

President Trump is meeting in Banff Canada for the G-7 summit which could lead to significant news on the trade front. Last Wednesday President Trump announced that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners and set unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline, following his 90-day pause. 

US economic news came in lower than expected yesterday with the June Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions index dropping -6.8 to -16.0, much weaker than the expected increase to -6.0. Today we will see May manufacturing production which is expected to increase +0.1% m/m and the June NAHB housing market index which is expected to increase +2 to 36. The FOMC meeting will conclude on Wednesday with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 99.8% chance that rates go unchanged. Due to the Juneteenth holiday weekly initial unemployment claims will be released on Wednesday and are expected to fall -3,000 to 245,000. Also, on Wednesday May housing starts are expected to decrease -0.2% m/m to 1.359 million.

Global bond yields fell yesterday with the 10-year US Treasury note yield dropping -0.6 bp to 4.411%. The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.2 bp to 2.523% and the 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.0 bp to 4.530%.

Looking at the daily chart for the E Mini S&P 500 September 2025 (/ESU25) contract we can see the significant rebound on higher-than-average volume during yesterday’s session. The contract was able to rally off the 20-Day Simple Moving Average and overtake Friday’s bearish candle.  Implied volatility has dropped significantly over the past few days, and it will be interesting to see if this can hold throughout a busy week of economic and geopolitical news. 

According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report released June 10^th asset managers have increased their long position by +5,223 contracts and decreased their short position by -7,224 contracts. Asset managers are net long 826,131 contracts. 

The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 61.34% indicates /ESU25 more buyers than sellers but the contract has not moved into overbought territory. 

This week represents the soft roll from the E Mini S&P 500 June contract to the next quarterly September contract. When trading this week be conscious of the last trading day and monitor the liquidity of the contract.

Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET

Capacity Utilization 9:15 AM ET

Export Prices 8:30 AM ET

Export Prices ex-ag. 8:30 AM ET

Import Prices 8:30 AM ET

Import Prices ex-oil 8:30 AM ET

Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

NAHB Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

Retail Sales ex-auto 8:30 AM ET

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• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL) 

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