Looking to the Futures

Bitcoin pushed back above the $80,000 threshold on Thursday as the cryptocurrency's sharp August rebound continued. September Bitcoin futures (/BTCU26) gained approximately 1.8% during the session, settling at 80,280 after reaching an intraday high of 80,845. The move comes during a strong stretch for the largest digital asset, which has gained more than 25% this month alone and recently traded at its highest levels since May of this year. 

Renewed institutional demand has been a major catalyst to help support the recent rally. U.S. listed spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds recorded roughly $232 million in net inflows on Wednesday, marking an eighth consecutive trading session of positive flows. During this eight-day streak, approximately $2.8 billion has entered into the funds, while total August inflows thus far have now surpassed $3 billion. This mark makes August the strongest month of inflows seen so far in 2026. 

Amidst this surge of inflows and changing sentiment, Bitcoin rallied roughly 23% just last week producing its strongest weekly performance since November of 2024. Futures activity also accelerated during the move, with CME Bitcoin futures volume rising sharply as traders began to return to the market. The initial breakout was accompanied by heavy short covering, including approximately $1.37 billion in Bitcoin short liquidations on the 19th. 

Another strong catalyst supporting Bitcoin's intense move has been the recent developments in the U.S. Treasury market. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to at least double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities to now roughly $4 billion. This announcement resulted in longer-term yields falling and put further pressure on the U.S. dollar. This created a more favorable backdrop for alternative assets such as Bitcoin and precious metals. 

Regulatory developments have also added to the recent optimism surrounding digital assets. President Trump last week called on Congress to advance legislation providing clearer rules for the crypto industry. Progress toward a broader regulatory framework has remained a closely watched catalyst for the industry as lawmakers continue to debate the structure and oversight of crypto markets. The Clarity Act is expected to be voted on sometime in the middle of September by the Senate. 

Bitcoin's move comes during a time where concerns surrounding government debt, inflation, and elevated borrowing costs remain at the forefront for investors. The Treasury's recent increased intervention has also highlighted differing views between Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh over how much policymakers should influence longer-term interest rates. Markets will now turn their attention to Warsh's speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for additional clues on future monetary policy surrounding inflation. 

On the daily chart, September Bitcoin futures (/BTCU26) continued their recent breakout on Thursday, settling at 80,280. The contract remains comfortably above its 20-, 50-, and 100-day simple moving averages following the sharp rally seen over the past two weeks. /BTC now sits above its long-term 200-day SMA as of last week, marking its first close back above the moving average since November of last year. 

The 14-day Relative Strength Index finished Thursday at 80.79, placing /BTC firmly in overbought territory above the 70 level. This reading marks a sharp shift from earlier this month and could signal that near-term momentum has become stretched following Bitcoin's rapid advance. Volume declined on Thursday with 8,104 contracts traded, just below the 50-day average of approximately 9,280 contracts. 
 

20-Day SMA:                      68,427

50-Day SMA:                      65,319

100-Day SMA:                    69,682

200-Day SMA:                    75,553

14-Day RSI:                        80.79

50-Day Vol Avg:                  9,280

9:45 AM ET - Chicago Business Barometer - ISM - Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

10:00 AM ET - U. Michigan Final Consumer Survey

10:00 AM ET - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole economic policy symposium

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