Looking to the Futures

This morning’s USDA June Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, due at 11 a.m. CDT, will be closely watched by grain traders for signs that an early start to the planting season led U.S. producers to plant more corn and fewer soybeans than previously expected.

The reports may also offer clues on whether the recent rise in crude oil prices tied to the U.S./Iran conflict has lifted demand expectations for soybean oil and corn-based ethanol.

In March, the USDA estimated U.S. corn acreage at 95.3 million acres, down from 98.8 million acres planted the prior year. 

Ahead of today’s release, the average trade estimate sits at 94.9 million acres, implying a modest reduction from the March projection.

That potential shift is important because fewer corn acres could leave more room for soybeans, which the USDA estimated in March at 84.7 million acres for 2026, up from 81.2 million acres planted in 2025. 

The average trade estimate for today’s June report calls for soybean acreage to rise to 85.4 million acres.

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report will provide another key read on usage, with June 1 U.S. corn stocks expected to total 5.394 billion bushels, up from 4.643 billion bushels a year ago.

Soybean inventories are expected to total 1.05 billion bushels as of June 1, compared with 1.008 billion bushels last year.

Although market participants are not expecting a major market-moving surprise, any meaningful deviation from trade expectations could trigger increased price volatility heading into the key July and August growing months for corn and soybeans.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved higher in the early hours with the S&P 500® (+0.07%), the Nasdaq-100® (+0.13%), the Russell 2000® (+0.08%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.10%) all positive. 

In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with the Nikkei (+0.86%) and the Shanghai (+0.50%) higher, but the Hang Seng (–0.63%) posting losses. 

European trading saw the DAX (+1.42%), the CAC (+0.58%), and the FTSE (+1.08%) markets move higher by midday.

Sugar futures (/SBV26) closed higher to start the week (+1.86%), with the front-month October contract trading at three-week highs. Prices have climbed sharply over the past several sessions as monsoon rainfall in India stood at just 42% of normal as of last week, raising concerns about a smaller sugar cane harvest this season in one of the world’s key sugar-producing nations.

Coffee futures (/KCU26) rebounded on Monday (+1.68%) as heavy rains across Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions slowed the harvest and raised concerns about potential quality issues for this season’s crop.

SRW Wheat futures (/ZWU26) closed lower on Monday (–1.70%) as traders positioned ahead of the USDA’s June acreage report. All wheat acres are expected to total 43.8 million acres, unchanged from the March estimate but 1.5 million acres below 2025 levels.

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April (interest rates)

FHFA Home Price Index for April (interest rates)

Chicago PMI for June (interest rates)

JOLTs Job Openings and Quits for May (stock indices and interest rates

Dallas Fed Services Index for June (interest rates)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® for June (interest rate futures)

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report (grains and Cotton)  

Futures First Notice Day: July Grains and Metals

Futures Last Trading Day: June Milk, Fed Funds, 2-year Notes, and 5-year Notes

July Sugar, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Brazilian Real

6-week T-bills

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.