Ten of the 13 Fed tightening cycles were associated with recession with a contraction beginning a median of 27 months after the

First Fed rate hike	Recession start
4/25/1946	Nov. 1948
4/15/1955	Aug. 1957
9/12/1958	Apr. 1960
7/17/1963	NA
11/20/1967	Dec. 1969
1/15/1973	Nov. 1973
8/31/1977	Jan. 1980
9/26/1980	Jul. 1981
9/4/1987	Jul. 1990
2/4/1994	NA
6/30/1999	Mar. 2001
6/30/2004	Dec. 2007
12/16/2015	NA
	Median
	Average

Disclosure Title

Source: Charles Schwab, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).